LOS ANGELES, January 4, 2023 — The first 17 weeks of the 2022 NFL regular season are in the history books. Week 18 is here.
This week football jargon not used for 51 weeks is said over and over. We learn who controls their own destiny and who needs help making the playoffs. Some years it seems almost everybody has a shot at the playoffs. This year the NFC playoff picture has very few possibilities. Only one playoff spot remains for three teams. Everything else is a fight for seeding among teams that have already clinched playoff berths.
This brings my assessment of the 2022-2023 NFC playoff permutations and combinations.
Only the top seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs gets the first-round bye.
The AFC Playoff picture is a total mess due to reasons far bigger than football. Buffalo Bills defender Damar Hamlin had a heart attack this past Monday night when the Bills played the Cincinnati Bengals. He is in a hospital fighting for his life. More details about his situation will be dealt with in the AFC Playoff column. For now, this column only deals with the NFC. We all pray Mr. Hamlin gets better quickly.
Now on to football itself, which can be a respite from the pain the real world brings.
Six of the eight NFC Week 18 games have playoff implications.
In the NFC, three of the four divisions have already been clinched. Yet plenty is is up for grabs. The top seed is open. So is the final Wildcard, where three teams are fighting for the last spot.
Now for the NFC Playoff picture.
1.) Philadelphia Eagles (13-3):
The Eagles currently have the best record in the conference and are the top seed. They have clinched a playoff spot but nothing else. They control their own destiny. If they win next week, they clinch the NFC East, the top seed, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a bye week. If they lose and Dallas wins, the Eagles lose the tie-breaker and fall all the way to the five seed. They would play a road game on Wildcard Weekend. If the Eagles and Dallas both lose, the Eagles still clinch the NFC East. If the Eagles, Dallas and San Francisco all lose, the Eagles still win the top seed. If the Eagles and Dallas both lose but San Francisco wins, the Eagles would fall to the two seed and play a home game on Wildcard Weekend.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4):
The 49ers have clinched the NFC West and are currently the two seed. If they win next week and Philadelphia loses, the 49ers move into the top spot with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If the 49ers lose and Minnesota wins, the 49ers fall to the three seed. They cannot fall lower than the three seed.
3.) Minnesota Vikings (12-4):
The Vikings have clinched the NFC North and home field throughout the playoffs. Right now they are the three seed. They can finish no lower than the three seed. If they win next week, San Francisco loses, and Philadelphia wins the NFC East, the Vikings can move up to the two seed but no higher. If the Vikings win next week, San Francisco loses, but Dallas wins the NFC East, the Vikings stay at the three seed. The Vikings lose tie-breakers to both NFC East teams, so the top seed is out of reach. The Vikings will be hosting a game on Wildcard Weekend.
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8):
The Buccaneers have clinched the NFC South and are locked into the four seed. The only reason they might not rest their starters is to avoid the ignominy of Tom Brady having his first ever losing season.
5.) Dallas Cowboys (12-4):
The Cowboys are one game back in the NFC East and are currently the five seed. They cannot finish lower than that. If they win next week and Philadelphia loses, the Cowboys win the tie-breaker and clinch the NFC East to move up to the two seed. If the Cowboys win and Philadelphia and San Francisco both lose, the Cowboys move all the way up to the top seed and home field throughout the playoffs with a first round bye.
6.) New York Giants (9-6-1):
The Buccaneers have clinched a Wildcard and are locked into the six seed. They might rest their starters in the regular season finale.
7.) Green Bay Packers (8-8):
The Packers have not clinched anything. They can only make the playoffs as a Wildcard. Yet they control their own destiny. If they win next week, they clinch the seven seed. They can be no higher. Any Wildcard game they play would be on the road. If they lose, the Packers are out.
On the outside looking in:
8:) Seattle Seahawks (8-8):
The Seahawks are on the outside looking in. They can only make the playoffs as a Wildcard. Their only hope is to win next week and have Green Bay lose. If that happens, the Seahawks clinch the seven seed. They can be no higher. Any Wildcard game they play would be on the road. If they lose, the Seahawks are out.
9.) Detroit Lions (8-8)
The Lions are on the outside looking in. They can only make the playoffs as a Wildcard. Their only hope is to win next week and have Seattle lose. If that happens, the Lions clinch the seven seed. They can be no higher. Any Wildcard game they play would be on the road. If they lose, the Lions are out.
Here are the NFC games with playoff implications:
Minnesota Vikings (12-4) at Chicago Bears (3-13)
Dallas Cowboys (12-4) at Washington Commanders (7-8-1)
Arizona Cardinals (4-12) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Los Angeles Rams (5-11) at Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
New York Giants (9-6-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Detroit Lions (8-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Predictions:
1.) Eagles 14-3 (The Giants may the rest their starters)
2.) 49ers 13-4
3.) Vikings 13-4
4.) Buccaneers 9-8 (assuming they play their starters)
5.) Cowboys 13-4
6.) Giants 9-7-1
7.) Packers 9-8
Out: Seahawks 9-8, Lions 8-9
Wildcard Round:
7.) Packers at 2.) 49ers
6.) Giants at 3.) Vikings
5.) Cowboys at 4.) Buccaneers
Divisional Round:
5.) Cowboys at 1.) Eagles
3.) Vikings at 2.) 49ers
NFC Title Game: 2.) 49ers at 1.) Eagles
The Eagles are a very shaky top seed, especially if Jalen Hurts cannot come back from injury. They are very beatable and could flame out in the Divisional Round. The 49ers have the most complete team in the NFC because of their nasty defense. The Cowboys have an explosive offense but at Philadelphia in the cold weather, the Eagles with Hurts would have the advantage. The Buccaneers and Packers barely made it, but do you want to bet against Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers? The Packers are red hot but the one team that has tormented them the last few years is the 49ers, especially because of their defense.
Because of that defense the 49ers will host the George Halas NFC Championship Trophy and reach the Super Bowl. Bringing home the Vince Lombardi Trophy will be very tough. The top AFC teams all match up well with them.
eric