LOS ANGELES, January 4, 2023 — The first 17 weeks of the 2022 NFL regular season are in the history books. Week 18 is here.
This week football jargon not used for 51 weeks is said over and over. We learn who controls their own destiny and who needs help making the playoffs. Some years it seems almost everybody has a shot at the playoffs. This year the AFC playoff picture has plenty of possibilities.
That’s our assessment of the 2022-2023 AFC playoff permutations and combinations.
Only the top seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs gets the first-round bye.
The NFC playoff picture is fairly cut and dry. The AFC Playoff picture is a total mess due to reasons far bigger than football. Buffalo Bills defender Damar Hamlin had a heart attack this past Monday night when the Bills played the Cincinnati Bengals. He is in a hospital fighting for his life. We all pray Mr. Hamlin gets better quickly. He is still unable to speak and is still in critical condition. However, as of Thursday, doctors said his condition was improving. His first written question to doctors was “Did we win the game?” Unaware the game was canceled, the doctor smartly and beautifully replied, “You won the game of life.”
Mr. Hamlin had a GoFundMe page set up to raise funds to buy toys for underprivileged children. His goal was to raise $2,500. In the 3 days after his life-threatening injury, over $7 million was raised.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/mxksc-the-chasing-ms-foundation-community-toy-drive
This staggering show of love was also in addition to a very classy display by the home fans in Cincinnati. Bengals fans joined with Bills fans outside the hospital to pray for him.
While nothing is more important than life and death, this is a column about football. The cancellation of the Bills-Bengals game has thrown the entire AFC playoffs into complete chaos and turmoil. Both teams along with the Kansas City Chiefs had a legitimate chance at home field throughout the playoffs. The Chiefs are 13-3. The Bills are 12-3. The Bengals are 11-4. Had the Bills won, they would be 13-3 and own the tie-breaker over the Chiefs. Had the Bengals won, they would be 12-4. If they won their last game and the Chiefs lost, the Bengals would have the tie-breaker over the Chiefs. Home field advantage throughout the playoffs means a first round bye. That is a big competitive advantage.
Additionally, The Bengals may by default win the AFC North Division over the Baltimore Ravens, who are 10-6. Had they Bengals lost on Monday night and dropped to 10-5, their showdown this coming week could have been for the division crown. Now it seems the Ravens will automatically be relegated to the Wildcard.
None of these teams will publicly complain about being “cheated” out of a division title or home playoff game for fear of being seen as a monster. Again, life and death is more important. Nevertheless, the NFL is looking at possible compromises, including moving the AFC Title Game to a neutral site.
With all respect to Mr. Hamlin, this is a football column. The rest of this column will be devoted to the football games themselves.
Seven of the eight AFC Week 17 games have playoff implications.
In the AFC, at least two of the four divisions have already been clinched. Assuming the league does not reverse itself, the cancellation of the Bills-Bengals game means a third AFC division is clinched. Yet the top seed is wide open. So is the final Wildcard spot.
The Cancellation of the Bills-Bengals game creates an unprecedented situation. Each of those teams will have played only 16 games while the Chiefs will have played 17 games. So the Chiefs may finish with the best record by 1/2 a game and still not automatically get the first round bye. The league will have to sort this out.
Now for the AFC Playoff picture.
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (13-3):
The Chiefs clinched the AFC West and are currently the one seed by default. If they win but Buffalo also wins, the Chiefs will still lead by 1/2 game. This is the league nightmare scenario where the If they win, the location of the AFC Title Game and first round bye will be a mess. If the Chief win and Buffalo loses, the issue is moot. The Chiefs undisputedly retain the top seed with home field throughout the playoffs. If the Chiefs lose, they can retain the top seed as long as Cincinnati, and Buffalo lose.
If the Chiefs lose and Buffalo wins, then the Chiefs absolutely fall to the two seed. They would host a playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If the Chiefs and Buffalo both lose and Cincinnati wins, Cincinnati would still be 1/2 game back. This could result in the neutral site location for the AFC Title Game. The Chiefs cannot fall below the two seed.
2.) Buffalo Bills (12-3):
The Bills clinched the AFC East lead and right now are the two seed. They would host a game on Wildcard weekend. If the Bills win and Kansas City loses, the Bills are the undisputed top seed with home field advantage and a first round bye. If the Bills and Kansas City both win, the league will probably move the AFC Title Game to a neutral site. If the Bills and Kansas City both lose and Cincinnati wins, then things get really hairy. The Bills would probably at that point drop to the three seed.
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-4):
The Bengals clinched the AFC North by default and are currently the three seed. They would host a game on Wildcard weekend. If the Bengals win, and Buffalo loses, the Bengals move up to the two seed. If the Bengals win and Buffalo and Kansas City both lose, the Bengals would be 1/2 game back in the race for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The AFC Title Game could be held at a neutral site. If the Bengals lose, they are locked into the three seed. They cannot fall lower.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8): The Jaguars have a one game lead in the AFC South but have not clinched anything. They control their own destiny. If they beat Tennessee in the regular season finale, they win their division. They would be the four seed and host a Wildcard Weekend playoff game. If they lose to Tennessee, they lose the division tie-breaker. They could still make the playoffs as the seven seed Wildcard but would need a ton of help. New England, Miami and Pittsburgh would all have to lose. If the Jaguars lose and any one of those three teams wins, the Jaguars are out.
5.) Los Angeles Chargers (10-6):
The Chargers have clinched a playoff Wildcard. They are currently the five seed. No matter what, they will be on the road for their Wildcard Weekend playoff game. If they win next week or if Baltimore loses, the Chargers retain the five seed. They cannot go higher than the five seed. If the Chargers lose and Baltimore wins, the Chargers drop to the six seed. They cannot fall lower than the six seed.
6.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6):
The Ravens have clinched a playoff Wildcard. They are currently the six seed. No matter what, they will be on the road for their Wildcard Weekend playoff game. If they win next week and the Chargers lose, the Ravens move up to the five seed. They cannot go higher than the five seed. If the Chargers win or the Ravens lose, the Ravens remain the six seed. They cannot fall lower than the six seed.
7.) New England Patriots (8-8):
The Patriots have not clinched anything but they control their own destiny. If they win their regular season finale, they clinch the seven seed Wildcard and play a road playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. They can finish no higher than the seven seed. The Patriots can lose their finale and still make the playoffs as the seven seed, but would need a miracle. Miami, Pittsburgh and Tennessee would all have to lose. If the Patriots lose and any one of those teams win, the Patriots are out.
Outside looking in:
Tennessee Titans (7-9):
The Titans are one game back in the AFC South. They control their own destiny, and their situation is cut and dry. If they win their regular season finale, they win the AFC South and the four seed. They would host a playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If the Titan lose their finale, they are out.
Miami Dolphins (8-8) — The Dolphins can only make the playoffs as the seven seed Wildcard if they win their regular season finale and New England loses. If the Dolphins lose or New England wins, the Dolphins are out.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) — The Steelers have the longest shot. They can make the playoffs as the seven seed Wildcard if they win their regular season finale and Miami and New England both lose. If the Steelers lose or either Miami or New England wins, the Steelers are out.
Here are the seven AFC games with playoff implications:
Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-10)
Cleveland Browns (7-9) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
New York Jets (7-9) at Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Tennessee Titans (7-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
New England Patriots (8-8) at Buffalo Bills (12-3)
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
Predictions:
1.) Chiefs 14-3
2.) Bills 13-3
3.) Bengals 12-4
4.) Jaguars 9-8
5.) Chargers 11-6
6.) Ravens 10-7
7.) Dolphins 9-8
Out — Pittsburgh 9-8, New England 8-9, Tennessee 7-10
Wildcard Round:
7.) Dolphins at 2.) Bills
6.) Ravens at 3.) Bengals
5.) Chargers at 4.) Jaguars
Divisional Round:
4.) Jaguars at 1.) Chiefs
3.) Bengals at 2.) Bills
AFC Title Game: 2.) Bills vs 1.) Chiefs
QUESTION: Where the heck is the AFC Title Game being played?
The home field will matter.
Patrick Mahomes is still the best player in the NFL, certainly in the AFC. Walrus Andy Reid has too many weapons on offense and a much improved defense. The Bills and Bengals both have great defenses and great quarterbacks. They both have a defense better than that of the Chiefs. The Bills and Bengals both beat Kansas City in the regular season. The Bengals did so at home while the Bills went into Arrowhead and won.
On a neutral field, the Bills and Bengals can beat the Chiefs. The Bengals shocked the Chiefs last year in Arrowhead in the AFC Title Game. The Bills were 13 seconds away from shocking the Chiefs last year in Arrowhead in the Divisional round.
Yet this Chiefs team has so much speed and so much playoff experience. If they get the AFC Title Game at home for the fifth straight year, they will not be denied this time. The Bills and Bengals might be so emotionally drained from the Damar Hamlin tragedy and a playoff rematch that leaves the winner bloodied before facing Kansas City.
Unless they have to go on the road to face Buffalo or Cincinnati, the Chiefs will again win the Lamar Hunt Trophy known for their late owner and founder.
Additional prediction: The Chiefs will win it all in a rematch of the Super Bowl they won three years ago.
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