NFL 2023 Week 4 Prequel
Thursday, September 27, 2023, 8pm
Detroit Lions (-1 1/2) at Green Bay Packers — The Lions went into Green Bay last year and knocked Green Bay out of the playoffs. Dan Campbell has changed the culture of his team. Yet the Packers are not cellar dwellers. Go with the home field and, a Green Bay team burning for revenge, and Jordan Love yearning to win a game Aaron Rodgers lost last year. Upset special, Packers win outright
Sunday, September 30, 9:30am
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) — The Jaguars lost a home stunner to Houston. The Falcons came back to earth in losing to Philadelphia. Expect the Jaguars to rebound. Trevor Lawrence is better than Desmond Ridder. London is a home game for the Jaguars. Jaguars cover
1pm
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2 1/2) — The Dolphins blasted Denver to pieces last week, scoring 70 points in a win for the ages. Yes, the Dolphins are very good. They have a ton of speed. The weather in Buffalo is not cold yet, muting what i often a major Buffalo advantage. Yet Buffalo is still very good. If the Dolphins win this game, the Super Bowl talk will skyrocket. Yet go with the home field anyway in a battle of very good teams. The fact that the Bills are favored at all shows that the 70 points the Dolphins scored should not alter reality. Buffalo also has a solid defense. Bills cover
Denver Broncos (-3 1/2) at Chicago Bears — This is the Stupor Bowl. The Broncos gave up a mind-bogging 70 points last week. Yet the Bears fare also horrendous. The spread is too high for a road team that lost a game by 50 points. Yet the fact the Broncos are even favored shows how bad the Bears are. Matt Eberflus has no answers. Broncos win but fail to cover.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2) — The Ravens lost a home stunner to Indianapolis. The Browns are improving, but the Ravens tend to play well against the Browns. Weather will not be a factor. The Browns have a good defense, but the Ravens can run the ball. Trust Lamar Jackson to figure it out. Dehsaun Watson is no slouch, but he’s not Jackson. In a close game, trust Justin Tucker despite last week. Upset special, Ravens win outright
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 1/2) at Houston Texans — Houston got a big win at Jacksonville last week and could be ripe for a letdown. Pittsburgh has returned to Mike Tomlin football of pounding the rock. Kenny Pickett has grown. Steelers cover
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Carolina Panthers — This is Stupor Bowl II. The Panthers were expected to be winless while the Vikings have been a head-scratcher. The Vikings lost last week in heart-breaking fashion. The Panthers have a bare cupboard. This is the week the Vikings finally get out of the winless column. Kirk Cousins has more weapons than anyone leading the Panthers. Vikings cover
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-1) — The Colts got a big emotional win at Jacksonville last week and could be ripe for a letdown. The Rams are simply not what they were a couple of years ago. Yet the Rams still have more playmakers on both sides of the ball than the Colts. Give the Rams one more week to show they are rebounding and not rebuilding. Upset special, Rams win outright.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) — The Buccaneers were finally exposed last week in a humiliating loss against Philadelphia. The Saints blew a 17-0lead at Green Bay when Derek Carr went down. Carr had the tea clicking. Jameis Winston is not trustworthy. Baker Mayfield is playing well. Yet the saints have a better defense, and the team may rally around Winston to be a game manager rather than a wild gunslinger. Saints cover
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) — The Commanders got shellacked last week at Buffalo. Now they face the undefeated defending champions. The Eagles have the talent, the home field, the star quarterback, and a great running game. Eagles cover
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-1 1/2) — The Titans are hurting. They have not been the same since Cincinnati beat them in the playoffs in Tennessee two years ago. The Bengals got their first win last week and appear to have turned the corner. Joe Burrow is better than Ryan Tannehill and has more weapons. Upset special, Bengals win outright
4pm
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-4 1/2) — The Chargers play in Los Angeles but this often feels like a Raiders home game. Nevertheless, Justin Herbert stretches the field while Jimmy Garoppolo dinks and dunks. Garoppolo is still in concussion protocol anyway. Josh McDaniels and Brandon Staley are both dreadful coaches and terrible decision makers. Herbert is the difference maker. Chargers cover
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-7) — The Patriots finally got a win, an ugly affair over the Jets. The Cowboys had their Super Bowl talk put on hold with a stunning loss at previously winless Arizona. This week reverts back to reality. The Cowboys are talented. They have enough firepower at home to take on a Patriots team with an average Mac Jones. The Patriots can run the ball, so the high spread is a concern. Cowboys win but fail to cover.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14) — The Cardinals won a home shocker against Dallas, but the 49ers are playing lights out football. The Cardinals are due for a letdown and a beatdown. The 49ers have Brock Purdy, plenty of weapons, and a nasty defense. Expect the 49ers to keep rolling. The spread is high, but so is the talent gap. 49ers cover
8pm
Kansas City Chiefs (-9 1/2) at New York Jets — Zach Wilson is the weak link. He did not take care of business at home against previously winless New England. Expect Patrick Mahomes to do enough to win. Robert Saleh lost to Walrus Andy Reid in the Super Bowl a few years ago. Saleh knows defense while Reid is an offensive mastermind. A garbage touchdown could keep things close enough given the high spread for a road team. Chiefs win but fail to cover
Sunday, October 1, 8pm
Seattle Seahawks (-1 1/2) at New York Giants — Neither of these teams inspire anyone. Geno Smith and Daniel Jones have both had their ups and downs and problems with fumbles, but Smith seems to have improved. Pete Carroll knows defense. In a battle of who wants it least, the Giants are more likely to commit the key turnover. Seahawks cover