NFL 2023 Week 12 Prequel
Thanksgiving Thursday, November 23, 2023, 9:30am
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7 1/2) — The balance of power has shifted. The Packers are bad. The Lions are very good and playing with a chip on their shoulders. The Lions have hit the Packers in the mouth twice in a row in Green Bay. At home indoors, their offense will click on all cylinders. Lions cover
1:30pm
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-11) — The Commanders looked awful at home against the lowly Giants. The Cowboys have found their groove. They sometimes play down to the level of their competition, but that will be very hard in this case. The Cowboys have too many weapons on offense. Cowboys cover
5pm
San Francisco 49ers (-6 1/2) at Seattle Seahawks — First place in the NFC West is on the line. The Seahawks stubbed their to in blowing a 13 point second half lead last week at the Rams. The 49ers have more talent on offense and their defense is nastier. Yet the Seahawks have the home field. Seattle has not bee invincible at home in years, but the 12th man should be jacked up for this one. Nevertheless, go with the better team. 49ers win but fail to cover
Black Friday, November 24, 3pm
Miami Dolphins (-10) at New York Jets — A special edition of Friday football gives the Dolphins a chance to run away with the division. Both teams have good defenses, but the Jets finally benched Zach Wilson. Tim Boyle gets the start. He will be a deer in the headlights. The spread is a high for a road team, and again Gang Green does have a solid defense. The Dolphins have enough speed to break the Jets, but a garbage touchdown is possible. Dolphins win but fail to cover
Sunday, November 26, 1pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals — Both of these teams are fighting for position in a crowded AFC North. The Steelers are favored because Joe Burrow is now out for the rest of the year injured. Home field has never mattered in these matchups. The Pittsburgh offense went nowhere last week at Cleveland, and Cincinnati still has a decent defense. This one could come down to the final play. Expect the Steelers to pound d the ball. This could go down to the final play. Steelers cover
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1 1/2) at Houston Texans — Both teams are improved under Doug Pederson and Demeco Ryans, respectively. Trevor Lawrence is a generational talent and CJ Stroud has taken the league by storm. Right now Stroud has the hot hand. Go with the home field when all else seems equal. Upset special, Texans win outright
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-2 1/2) — The Buccaneers have talent on paper, but games are not played on paper. Gardner Minshew has filled in capably in place of the injured Anthony Richardson. Indoors at home, expect Jonathan Taylor to run well enough to make a difference. Until the Buccaneers stop underachieving, they don’t get the benefit of the doubt. Colts cover
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Pick) — Normally the Saints would be favored, but they have been battered by injuries. Derek Carr is still in concussion protocol. Michael Thomas is out. Jameis Winston throws touchdown passes to both teams. Nevertheless, the Falcons are not that special and Dennis Allen runs a great defense. Saints win
New England Patriots (-3) at New York Giants — This is the Stupor Bowl. The Patriots are awful. So are the Giants, and starting Danny Devito’s third cousin Tommy does not help matters. Yet the Giants have a decent defense. Devito was sacked nine times last week and the Giants still won on the road. Mac Jones is playing badly. In an ugly game, go with the Giants defense. Upset special, Giants win outright
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (-3 1/2) — Both of these teams are having a miserable season. Derrick Henry should be ok at home to run over a Carolina defense that is far from great. At home, the Titans should get the win. Yet until they prove themselves against the worst team in the league, they do not get the benefit of the doubt regarding the point spread. Titans win but fail to cover
4pm
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Pick) — The Cardinals are simply a different team with Kyler Murray in the lineup. The Rams gutted out a win over Seattle at home after overcoming a 13 point deficit. Yet at home, Murray knows he is playing for his future in Arizona. Expect Murray to run all over the place. Cardinals win
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-2 1/2) — Both teams have really good defenses. Yet the Broncos also have Russell Wilson. With Deshaun Watson out for the rest of the year, the Browns will have to win with their defense. The Broncos have won four straight, including a victory over Minnesota, who had won five straight. The Broncos are a whole team. The Browns are half a team. Browns cover
Kansas City Chiefs (-9 1/2) at Las Vegas Raiders — The Chiefs were one dropped pass in the rain from beating Philadelphia. Dropped passes have killed the Chiefs this year. Yet while the Raiders are improved, Aidan O’Connell is no Patrick Mahomes. Interim Coach Antonio Pierce is determined to run the ball. If Josh Jacobs can get going, the Raiders can keep from getting blown out. The Raiders defense played Miami tough. The Chiefs are not blowing teams out as in years past. Chiefs win but fail to cover
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (-3 1/2) — The Eagles got a big emotional win over Kansas City, but do not expect a letdown. At home, the Eagles are very tough. The Bills are playing far below their talent level. The Bills did blow out the Jets, and the Jets are the only team this year to have beaten the Eagles. That was a fluke. Josh Allen is turning the ball over far too often. Eagles win but fail to cover
8pm
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Los Angeles Chargers — Nobody loses close games like the Chargers. Lamar Jackson is playing lights out football. John Harbaugh is a far better coach than Brandon Staley. Justin Herbert is talented enough to keep the Chargers in the game, but trust the team that finds ways to win over the team that consistently underachieves when it matters. Ravens win but fail to cover
Monday, November 27, 8pm
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3 1/2) — Both teams blew a fourth quarter late lead last week. Yet the Vikings had their five game winning streak snapped at a Denver team that has won four straight. The Bears have been awful all year. They lack the talent to compete. The Vikings have not been blowing anyone out, and the Bears could get a garbage touchdown. Vikings win but fail to cover