NFL 2023 Week 17 Prequel
This is when the big dogs come out.
Thursday, December 28, 2023, 8pm
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-7) — The 10-5 Browns have a serious defense. Joe Flacco is playing well enough. As bad as the Jets have been, their defense still shows up. The spread is a bit high given that factor and because the Browns do not blow teams out. Browns win but fail to cover
Saturday, December 30, 8pm
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6) — The 11-4 Lions take on the 10-5 Cowboys. Both teams are in the playoffs. Both teams are good at home and fairly ordinary on the road. Both offenses can move the ball. This is one where you should just take the home field. Cowboys win but fail to cover
Sunday, December 31, 1pm
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3) — The 11-4 Dolphins are at the 12-3 Ravens. The stakes are very simple. If the Ravens win, they get home field throughout the AFC playoffs and the coveted first round bye as the top seed. If the Dolphins win and then win next week, then they get the top seed and home field. Both Tua Tagovailoa are playing lights out. The Ravens have the better defense. As good as the Dolphins are, watching Baltimore go on the road and tear apart San Francisco tells the story. The Ravens are in Super Bowl mode. Ravens cover
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-12) — The Bills at 9-6 are fighting to make the playoffs. Yet the Patriots despite their awful record have a good defense. The Patriots just went on the road and shocked Denver. They will not do the same to Buffalo, but the spread is too high given that New England for the most part has been losing close games. Bills win but fail to cover
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (-3) — Neither of these teams are good, but the Falcons are only one game back in the wretched NFC South. Losing to awful Carolina was a killer for them. The Bears have played a little better in recent weeks. With neither of these teams offering anything compelling, just take the home field. The Falcons have everything to play for, but they don’t seem to play like it. Bears cover
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-3) — The Raiders are 7-8 and the Colts are 8-7. The Raiders went on the road and shocked Kansas City to keep their season alive. They even have a very slight chance of winning their division. The Colts are tied for their division lead but do not hold the tie-breaker. The Raiders defense has vasty improved. Antonio Pierce is the real deal. Forget the home field advantage. Both teams can pound the rock. Josh Jacobs, Zamir White and Jonathan Taylor are all beasts. The Raiders are playing inspired football at the right time. Gardner Minshew is far better than Aidan O’Connell. Go with the better defense. Upset special, Raiders win outright
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6 1/2) — The Jaguars have lost 4 straight but at 8-7 they hold their division tie-breaker. The Panthers are awful. This game is just the tonic the Jaguars need. The Carolina defense is not that bad, but the Jaguars should finally get their frustrations out. Jaguars cover
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-3 1/2) — The 8-7 Texans are tied for their division lead but they do not hold the tie-breaker. The Titans finally got Ryan Tannehill back last week after he missed most of the season injured. The Titans still have Derrick Henry and a tough defense. CJ Stroud is back at practice and should clear concussion protocol in time for the game He will make the difference. Texans win but fail to cover
Los Angeles Rams (-6 1/2) at New York Giants — The Rams started 3-6 but have gone 5-1 since to get to 8-7. The Giants went to Philadelphia and gave them all they could handle in a loss. The Tommy Devito story seems to have peaked, given that he was benched for Tyrod Taylor. As well as the Rams are playing, the spread is too high for a road team given that the Giants have been fighting hard and competing. Rams win but fail to cover
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-9 1/2) — The 11-4 Eagles barely survived the lowly Giants at home after taking an early 17 point lead. They snapped their three game losing streak the hard way. Yet the Cardinals are awful. Yes, Kyler Murray can still play. He doesn’t have enough help to make this game competitive. The spread is high but the Philadelphia defense should handle things. If they win out, they win the NFC East. They are tied atop the conference but do not hold that tie-breaker. Nevertheless, with a possible stop seed in reach, they will be focused. Eagles cover
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) — The 7-8 Saints take on the 8-7 Buccaneers. If the Buccaneers win, they win the NFC South for the third straight year. If the Saints win their final two games and the Buccaneers lose both games, the Saints win the division. The Buccaneers started 4-7 but have won four straight games since. The Saints have the better defense. Derek Carr has been uneven while Baker Mayfield has come on this past month. The Saints have talent but have underachieved all year. Go with the hot team. Buccaneers cover
San Francisco 49ers (-13 1/2) at Washington Commanders — The 11-4 49ers will be an angry bunch after getting humiliated at home against Baltimore. Now they get to take out their frustrations on the lowly Commanders. Ron Rivera may be fired at the end of the year. He has just benched Sam Howell in favor of Jacoby Brissett. Brissett is a competent backup. If the 49ers win their last two games, they win the top seed in the conference with the first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The 49ers are far superior but the spread is sky high. A garbage touchdown to beat the spread is possible. 49ers win but fail to cover
4pm
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-3 1/2) — Both teams are 8-7 and fighting for their playoff lives. A loss would be close to fatal for both teams. The Seahawks showed heart and guts in marching 92 yards in the final two minutes to shock Philadelphia last week. The Steelers have lost three of four since Kenny Pickett went down. Mitchell Trubisky was awful, but when he was benched in favor of Mason Rudolph, the Steelers went into Cincinnati and surprisingly beat them up. Yet the Seahawks have the home field, and Geno Smith is no slouch. Neither is his backup Drew Lock if Smith goes down again. The Seahawks have more weapons at wide receiver. Go with the home field in a close one between two great coaches. Seahawks win but fail to cover
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7 1/2) — For the last two years, this has been the AFC Title Game. Now it is a battle for survival as the 9-6 Chiefs take on the 8-7 Bengals. The Chiefs were shocked at home last week by the Raiders. The Chiefs offense has been out of sync and Patrick Mahomes has not been getting help. The Bengals were humiliated at home by Pittsburgh, another surprise. With one more win, the Chiefs win the AFC West for the eighth straight year. Jake Browning has played well in place of the injured Joe Burrow. Both teams are wounded. Go with an angry Chiefs team at home, but it will not be a cakewalk. Chiefs win but fail to cover
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-5 1/2) — The 7-8 Broncos lost a stunner at home to New England last week. The Broncos went on the road and easily beat up the Chargers. They should easily beat them again. If the Broncos win out and Kansas City loses their final two games, the Broncos would even win their division. Yet for some reason, with everything to play for, Sean Payton has benched Russell Wilson for the final two games. This would seem to signal the end of the Wilson experiment in Denver after one year. This seems to be the same suicide strategy the Raiders used last year with Derek Carr that destroyed their team. The Broncos will win this game without difficulty, and their backup quarterback is Jarrett Stidham, who ironically took over for the Raiders last year. Stidham is competent and the Chargers with their backup quarterback Eason stick are hopeless. Broncos cover
8pm
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2) — Both teams are 7-8 and fighting for their playoff lives. A loss would knock out either team. Both teams are one game back in the playoff race and need a win and some help. Nick Mullens had a rough game at home in a loss to Detroit, but Mullens is still better than Joshua Dobbs. Jordan Love is nothing special but he is not awful either. Mullens is better. The Vikings have Justin Jefferson, among the best wide receivers in the game. The Vikings have the home field, and over the decade that has matter a lot in this series. Vikings cover