NFL 2023-2024 AFC Playoff Permutations and Combinations
LOS ANGELES, January 2, 2024 — The first 17 weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season are in the history books. Week 18 is here.
This week football jargon not used for 51 weeks is said over and over. We learn who controls their own destiny and who needs help making the playoffs. Some years it seems almost everybody has a shot at the playoffs. This year the AFC playoff picture has plenty of possibilities.
That’s our assessment of the 2023-2024 AFC playoff permutations and combinations.
Only the top seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs gets the first-round bye.
The NFC playoff picture has several possibilities. The AFC Playoff picture thankfully is not the total mess it was last year due to reasons far bigger than football. Buffalo Bills defender Damar Hamlin had a heart attack one year ago today when the Bills played the Cincinnati Bengals. He was in a hospital fighting for his life. We all prayed for Mr. Hamlin to get better. quickly. Thankfully, he did. His first written question to doctors was “Did we win the game?” Unaware the game was canceled, the doctor smartly and beautifully replied, “You won the game of life.”vMr. Hamlin had a GoFundMe page set up to raise funds to buy toys for underprivileged children. His goal was to raise $2,500. In the 3 days after his life-threatening injury, over $7 million was raised.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/mxksc-the-chasing-ms-foundation-community-toy-drive
This staggering show of love was also in addition to a very classy display by the home fans in Cincinnati. Bengals fans joined with Bills fans outside the hospital to pray for him.
While nothing is more important than life and death, this is a column about football. While Mr. Hamlin miraculously made it back to the football field this season, he has played very little football. So this year let us be thankful that the playoffs are normal, and only about football. With all respect to Mr. Hamlin, this is a football column. The rest of this column will be devoted to the football games themselves.
Only four of the eight AFC Week 18 games have playoff implications. Only two of the four AFC Divisions have been clinched.
Now for the AFC Playoff picture.
1.) Baltimore Ravens (13-3): The Ravens have clinched the AFC North. They have also locked up the top seed with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the first round bye.
2.) Miami Dolphins: 11-5): The Dolphins lead the AFC East by one game but have not clinched their division. They have clinched a playoff spot. The Dolphins have a Week 18 division showdown with Buffalo. If the Dolphins win, they clinch the AFC East and are the two seed hosting a Wildcard game. If they lose, they fall to the six seed and would be on road during Wildcard weekend.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (10-6): The Chiefs clinched the AFC West for the eighth straight season and are locked into the three seed. They will host a Wildcard playoff game.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7): The Jaguars are in a three way tie atop the AFC South but have not clinched anything. They control their own destiny. If they beat Tennessee in the regular season finale, they win their division. They would be the four seed and host a Wildcard Weekend playoff game. If they lose to Tennessee, they lose the division. With a loss they could still make the playoffs as the seven seed Wildcard but would some help. Denver and Pittsburgh would both have to lose. If the Jaguars lose and either one of those two teams wins, the Jaguars are out.
5.) Cleveland Browns (11-5): The Browns are locked into the five seed Wildcard and will play a road playoff game on Wildcard weekend.
6.) Buffalo Bills (10-6): The Bills are one game back in the AFC East. They have officially clinched nothing, but they are “all but in.” Right now they are the six seed and would play a road game on Wildcard weekend. They have a Week 18 AFC East showdown at Miami. If the Bills win, they are AFC East Champions and vault up to the two seed. They would host a game on Wildcard weekend. If they lose, they would fall from the six seed to the seven seed. The only way they would miss the playoffs is if they lose, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville both win, and Houston and Indianapolis play to a tie. Barring that incredibly unlikely last scenario, the Bills are in.
7.) Indianapolis Colts (9-7): The Colts have not clinched anything but they control their own destiny. They have a do-or-die Week 18 showdown against Houston. If the Colts win, they clinch the seven seed Wildcard and play a road playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If they win and Jacksonville loses, the Colts win the AFC South and move up to the four seed. They would host a game on Wildcard weekend. If the Colts lose, they are out.
Outside looking in:
8.) Houston Texans (9-7): The Texans have not clinched anything but they control their own destiny. IThey have a do-or-die week 18 showdown against Indianapolis. If the Texans win, they clinch the seven seed Wildcard and play a road playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If they win and Jacksonville loses, the Texans win the AFC South and move up to the four seed. They would host a game on Wildcard weekend. If the Texans lose, they are out.
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7): The Steelers have the longest shot. They can make the playoffs as the seven seed Wildcard if they win their regular season finale and either Buffalo or Jacksonville loses. If the Steelers win but Buffalo and Jacksonville both win, the Steelers would need the Houston-Indianapolis game to end in a tie. If Buffalo and Jacksonville both win and the Houston-Indianapolis game is not a tie, the Steelers are out. If the Steelers lose, they are out.
Here are the AFC games with playoff implications:
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
Houston Texans (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) at Tennessee Titans (5-11)
Buffalo Bills (9-7) at Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Predictions:
1.) Ravens 13-4
2.) Dolphins 12-5
3.) Chiefs 11-6
4.) Jaguars 10-7
5.) Browns 11-6
6.) Bills 10-7
7.) Colts 10-7
Out — Pittsburgh 9-8, Houston 9-8
Wildcard Round:
7.) Colts at 2.) Dolphins
6.) Bills at 3.) Chiefs
5.) Browns at 4.) Jaguars
Divisional Round:
6.) Bills at 1.) Ravens
5.) Browns at 2.) Dolphins
AFC Title Game: 2.) Dolphins vs 1.) Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens are a wrecking machine. They will hold the Lamar Hunt Trophy as the AFC Champion. Then they will hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy as Super Bowl LVIII Champions.