NFL 2023-2024 NFC Playoff Permutations and Combinations
LOS ANGELES, January 4, 2023 — The first 17 weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season are in the history books. Week 18 is here.
This week football jargon not used for 51 weeks is said over and over. We learn who controls their own destiny and who needs help making the playoffs. Some years it seems almost everybody has a shot at the playoffs. This year the AFC playoff picture has several possibilities. Only one playoff spot remains for three teams. Everything else is a fight for seeding among teams that have already clinched playoff berths.
This brings my assessment of the 2023-2024 NFC playoff permutations and combinations.
Only the top seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs gets the first-round bye.
The AFC Playoff picture is far more straightforward.
All eight NFC Week 18 games have playoff implications. Only two of the four NFC Divisions have been clinched.
Now for the NFC Playoff picture.
1.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4): The 49ers have clinched the NFC West. They also locked up the top seed in the NFC, home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and a first round bye.
2.) Dallas Cowboys (11-5): The Cowboys are tied atop the NFC East and they hold the tie-breaker. They are currently the two seed. If they win next week or Philadelphia loses, the Cowboys clinch the NFC East and remain the two seed. They would host a Wildcard game. If the Cowboys lose and Philadelphia wins, the Cowboys move all the way down to the five seed Wildcard. The Cowboys would play a road Wildcard playoff game.
3.) Detroit Lions (11-5): The Lions have clinched the NFC North. Right now they are the three seed. They can finish no lower than the three seed. If they win next against Minnesota and Dallas and Philadelphia both lose, the Lions can move up to the two seed but no higher. The Lions will be hosting a game on Wildcard Weekend.
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8): The Buccaneers are tied atop the NFC South and they hold the tie-breaker, but they have not have clinched anything. They control their own destiny. Their situation is do-or-die. If the Buccaneers win their Week 18 finale at Carolina, the Buccaneers win the NFC South and are locked into the four seed. They would host a Wildcard playoff game. If the Buccaneers lose, they are out.
5.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5): The Eagles are tied atop the NFC East but they do not hold the tie-breaker. They are currently the five seed Wildcard. If they lose next week or Dallas wins, the Eagles remain the five seed. They would play a road Wildcard game. If the Eagles win and Dallas loses, the Eagles clinch the NFC East. The Eagles move all the way up to the two seed. The Eagles would host a Wildcard Weekend playoff game.
6.) Los Angeles Rams (9-7): The Rams have clinched a Wildcard and cannot finish higher than the six seed. If they lose and Green Bay wins, the Rams fall to the seven seed. They might rest their starters in the regular season finale.
7:) Green Bay Packers (8-8): The Packers are currently the seven seed. They have not clinched anything. They can only make the playoffs as a Wildcard. Yet they control their own destiny. If they win next week, they clinch the seven seed. If the Packers win and the Rams lose, the Packers move up to the six seed. They can be no higher. Any Wildcard game they play would be on the road. If the Packers lose, they are out.
On the outside looking in:
8:) Seattle Seahawks (8-8): The Seahawks are on the outside looking in. They can only make the playoffs as a Wildcard. Their only hope is to win next week and have Green Bay lose. If that happens, the Seahawks clinch the seven seed. They can be no higher. Any Wildcard game they play would be on the road. If they lose or the Packers win, the Seahawks are out.
9.) New Orleans Saints (8-8): The Saints are on the outside looking in. They are tied for the NFC South lead but do not hold the tie-breaker. If the Saints win their finale against Atlanta and Tampa Bay loses, The Saints would win the NFC West outright. They would be the four seed and host a Wildcard playoff game. If the Saints win but Tampa also wins, the Saints would lose the division tie-breaker but could still make the playoffs if Seattle and Green Bay both lose. In that situation the saints would be the seven seed Wildcard with all their playoff games on the road. If the Saints win, Tampa wins, and either Green Bay or Seattle win, the Saints are out. If the Saints lose, they are out.
10.) Atlanta Falcons (7-9): The Falcons are on the outside looking in. They only have one path to the playoffs. If they win their finale against New Orleans and Tampa loses, all three teams would be 8-9. The Falcons would win the tie-breaker and win the NFC South. They would be the four seed and host a Wildcard playoff game. The Falcons cannot make the playoffs as a Wildcard. If the Falcons lose, they are out.
11.) Minnesota Vikings (7-9): The Vikings are on the outside looking in. They have the longest odds. If they win and Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle all lose, the Vikings get the seven seed and a road Wildcard game. Otherwise, the Vikings are out.
Here are all eight NFC games with playoff implications:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Carolina Panthers (2-14)
Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at Washington Commanders (4-12)
Seattle Seahawks (8-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-12)
Los Angeles Rams (9-7) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at New York Giants (5-11)
Minnesota Vikings (7-9) at Detroit Lions (11-5)
Atlanta Falcons (7-9) at New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Chicago Bears (7-9) at Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Predictions:
1.) 49ers 12-5 (The 49ers may rest their starters)
2.) Cowboys 12-5
3.) Lions 12-5
4.) Buccaneers 9-8
5.) Eagles 11-6
6.) Rams 10-7 (assuming the 49ers rest their starters)
7.) Packers 9-8
Out: Saints 9-8, Seahawks 8-9, Falcons 7-10
Wildcard Round:
7.) Packers at 2.) Cowboys
6.) Rams at 3.) Lions
5.) Eagles at 4.) Buccaneers
Divisional Round:
4.) Buccaneers at 1.) 49ers
3.) Lions at 2.) Cowboys
NFC Title Game: 2.) Cowboys at 1.) 49ers
The 49ers have the most complete team in the NFC because of their nasty defense. The Cowboys have an explosive offense but at San Francisco, the 49ers defense will be the difference. They blasted the Cowboys once and will again.
Because of that defense the 49ers will host the George Halas NFC Championship Trophy and reach the Super Bowl. Bringing home the Vince Lombardi Trophy will be very tough. The Baltimore Ravens beat them easily. A rematch would be tougher, but Baltimore would be favored to win it all.
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