NFL 2023 Black Monday Coach Firings Predictions
Happy New Year. You’re history. Happy Hanukkah. Clean out your desk. Merry Christmas. You’re fired. The NFL coaching carousel is about to spin like a dreidel. The NFL is a cold place in losing environments. The annual ritual of firing coaches on Black Monday is a long-established NFL tradition. As retired coach Jerry Glanville used to say, the NFL stands for “Not For Long.”
Thankfully, Black Monday now comes past the holiday season, allowing coaches to enjoy time with their families. The pink-slips come afterward.
This season’s NFL 2023 Black Monday Coach Firing Carousel
The 2023 regular season coaching carousel saw three coaches fired during the season. The Carolina Panthers fired Frank Reich midway through his first season with the team 1-10. Chris Tabor is the interim coach. The Los Angeles Chargers fired Brandon Staley after less than three years. He was dismissed with the team 5-10. Giff Smith is the interim coach. The Chargers also fired General Manager Tom Telesco. The Raiders fired Coach Josh McDaniels and General Manager Dave Ziegler at the midpoint of their second season with the team 3-5. Antonio Pierce is the interim coach.
More changes will come Black Monday.
A time to fire: Rules of the Black Monday coach firing ritual
Owners can fire any employee they want whenever they want, but that does not mean they should. There are certain unwritten rules that owners should consider before firing (or not) NFL coaches on Black Monday.
- Never fire a coach after a winning season. No matter how badly the team underachieves, some teams would kill to go 9-8.
- Do not fire a coach unless it is absolutely definite that a better replacement option exists.
- Do not fire a coach after one season unless there is zero hope for improvement. Bill Parcells won only three games in his first season as an NFL head coach. Jimmy Johnson won one game. Tom Landry won zero games and tied one.
- Do not fire a coach after two losing seasons if they had four or five winning seasons prior. Allow two or even three bad seasons if the coach has the ability to turn things around.
- If a coach has won a Super Bowl for you, leave him alone for a few years.
- If he has won two Super Bowls for you in non-consecutive years, give him a lifetime contract.
- Lastly, if it is a close call, give the coach one more year.
With that, here are the NFL 2023 Black Monday Coach Firing predictions.
Black Monday firings that are necessary:
Los Angeles Chargers:
What should happen:
Giff Smith is just a placeholder. The Chargers have a stud quarterback in Justin Herbert. Ownership is notoriously cheap, but the team needs a quarterback whisperer who will unleash Herbert and build around him.
What will happen:
Smith is gone through no fault of his own.
Carolina Panthers:
What should happen: Chris Tabor is also just a placeholder. The Panthers need to develop rookie quarterback Bryce Young. This team also needs a quarterback whisperer, but they have an often side guru already in the building who too many teams need to stop overlooking. Jim Caldwell deserves the job.
What will happen: Tabor is gone, also through no fault of his own. The question is if owner David Tepper will be bright enough to hire Caldwell.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
What should happen:
Todd Bowles is a very good defensive coordinator. He is not a good head coach. He had a losing record in four years with the Jets. He took a playoff team under Bruce Arians and saw the offense regress badly even with Tom Brady. It took a couple of Brady miracles to will this team to an 8-9 record, the worst in Brady’s 23 seasons. Brady remarkably had not regressed. The problem is Bowles does not know offense. Now in 2023, he has an 8-8 team that could again win the horrendous NFC South. Also, firing him would be a powder keg given the NFL’s struggle to hire minority coaches. If Bowles makes the playoffs, he is safe. If he loses to 2-14 Carolina and missed the playoffs, his seat should be white hot. Bowles is an admirable man. He has refused to make his race an issue. The problem is that he was selected for the job by Arians because of his race. Arians was determined to hire a minority head coach. The goal is admirable but Bowles is not the best minority candidate.
What will happen:
Bowles stays if the Buccaneers should eke into the playoffs. This will earn Bowles one more year. He may be gone next year unless he can finally make a deep playoff run with a talented roster. If the Buccaneers miss the playoffs, Bowles should and could be gone.
New Orleans Saints:
What should happen:
Dennis Allen is a terrific defensive coordinator who is not a head coach. He had a terrible record coaching the Raiders, although to be fair that roster was being deconstructed and reconstructed. Yet Jack Del Rio came in the next year and turned things around. Allen brought in Derek Carr and was supposed to win the NFC South easily. Instead the Saints are on the brink of playoff elimination at 8-8. If the Saints make the playoffs, that could save Allen. Right now they are on the outside looking in.
What will happen:
Allen was given a reprieve last year due to plenty of injuries. This year Allen is out of excuses. He is good guy and a great defensive coordinator. He is not a head coach. There are too many attractive options available for the Saints to settle. Allen is fired, but should be given the option to stay on as defensive coordinator.
Deserve to stay but will be fired:
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick
After 24 years and 6 Super Bowls, The Evil Hoodie might be fired by Robert Kraft. Yes, the Patriots are bad, but the idea that the Patriots dynasty was all Tom Brady is contradicted by important evidence. Belichick won two Super Bowls as the defensive coordinator of the Giants before Brady ever stepped on an NFL field. Belichick devised the defensive game plan for two of the greatest upsets in Super bowl history, the 1990 Giants defeating the Bills and the 2001 Patriots defeating the Rams were because his defenses stopped previously unstoppable offenses. In the 2008 season when Brady was out injured, Belichick took a team led by Matt Cassel to an 11-5 record. This Patriots team has a good defense and terrible quarterback play. Maybe Belichick should bring back Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator. Belichick deserves a lifetime contract and the right to retire on his own terms. If Belichick really wants to torture Kraft, he could take a year off and then finally become the coach of the Jets. That would turn the NFL on its head and make the Bill Parcells feud with Kraft seem like child’s play. Kraft may have had enough of Belichick’s ego, but Belichick deserves the chance to try and turn things around. Kraft will likely try to create as amicable a parting as possible, a move he will regret. Belichick is going. It will be a mistake.
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera
This should not be a close call at all. Rivera is a very good coach and a fine leader of men. He is well respected in the community. He represents everything that is right about football. He even led the team last year while battling cancer. He does have to figure out the quarterback situation. Owner Dan Snyder finally sold the team, and a new owner might want a new coach. Rivera is the only thing respectable about management in DC. If he gets thrown under the bus, he will have other teams immediately trying to snap him up. He deserves on more year but will not get it.
Deserve to be fired but will stay:
Chicago Bears: Matt Eberflus
A few weeks ago Eburflus was uber-flustered and a dead coach walking. After starting 0-4 and 3-8, the Bears have gone 4-1 down the stretch to get to a respectable 7-9. During that span the Bears beat a very good Detroit team and whipped Atlanta by 20 points. If the Bears go into Green Bay and knock the Packers out of the playoffs, Eberlfus is safe. If they lose without getting blown out, he may still get one more year. The Bears have the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. No evidence exists that Eberflus can coach, but the strong finish should give him breathing room until next year.
Deserve to stay and will stay:
Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce:
What should happen:
Josh McDaniels was an unmitigated disaster. Antonio Pierce has changed the culture of the Raiders. The defense was a mess. Now with Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator, th defense is vastly improved. The secondary is even improved. McDaniels refused to run the ball in obvious running situations, such as in the fourth quarter with a lead. He preferred finesse to smash mouth and failed. Pierce pounds the rock. The Raiders scored a franchise record 63 points in one game. They lost a heart-breaker 3-0 but went into Kansas City and belted them 20-14. Pierce absolutely deserves to have the interim tag removed and become the permanent head coach.
What will happen:
Mark Davis has to know that the players and the fans love Pierce. He has to know that getting rid of Rich Bisaccia was a mistake. If Jim Harbaugh or Jon Gruden are available, Davis has to grab them. Yet barring those extreme situations, Pierce will rightly be given the full chance Bisaccia never got. Pierce stays.
Tennessee Titans: Mike Vrabel:
What should happen: Despite consecutive losing seasons, Vrabel should not be in any serious danger. The Titans have been devastated by injuries the last couple of years. Two years ago they were the top seed in the AFC. Last year they started 7-3 before the roof caved in. As tough as this year was, he should be given the chance to turn things around.
What will happen: Vrabel may be eyeing the New England job if it becomes available. Barring a surprising turn of events, Vrabel is going to stay. He is in a small market with a patient ownership group that allowed Jeff Fisher to stay for 16 years.
Green Bay Packers: Matt LaFleur
What should happen: As of now LaFleur seems safe as can be, but for the second year in a row the Packers have a do-or-die game at home. Last year in shocking fashion they were knocked out of the playoff race. For the second straight year they face a supposedly inferior team. If LaFleur misses the playoffs again under the same circumstances, he may face some chatter about next year. As long as Jordan Love continues to develop, LaFleur is safe.
What will happen: Jordan Love has not been spectacular, but he has been good enough. The Packers tend to be a patient organization. As long as Love does not regress, LaFleur is safe.
New York Jets: Robert Saleh:
What should happen: Can someone get this man a quarterback? He has a great defense and a horrendous quarterback. Aaron Rodgers lasted four snaps. Not four games…four snaps. Saleh deserves to be given the chance to see what he can do with a healthy Rodgers.
What will happen: This one is anti-climactic because owner Woody Johnson has already told Saleh that he is coming back next year. Yet if the team does not make the playoffs with a healthy Rodgers under center, then Saleh deserves to be put int he category of great defensive coordinators not able to succeed at the head coaching level. Next year is Saleh’s last chance.
Lifetime contract to silence the critics:
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Tomlin
Tomlin is not on any list of coaches being fired. However, in the past, he has been. That speculation needs to end permanently. In 17 years, Tomlin never had a losing season. Yet with Ben Roethlisberger retired and Kenny Pickett a rookie, the 2022 Steelers started 2-6 and 3-7. Again, Tomlin turned them around. He wins with hard-nosed running and defense. The Rooney family should let him stay as long as he wants. At this point, they probably will. They are smart, patient owners, and their loyalty has been rewarded. Tomlin is as good as they get on and off the field. He is another guy who represents the best of football.
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick
For all the reasons listed above, firing Belichick would be one of the truly idiotic moves in all of sports.
Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll
The oldest coach in the NFL runs around like he is the youngest. He is a positive upbeat cheerleader and the players respond well. He gets more out of less, as his revitalizing Geno Smith has proven. His 8-8 Seahawks may or may not make the playoffs this year, but Carroll has a great working relationship with General Manager John Schneider. He wants to stay and should be allowed to leave on his terms when he is ready to retire.
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