THIS. IS. WHEN. THE. BIG. DOGS. COME. OUT.
NFL 2023 Week 18 Prequel
Saturday, January 6, 2023, 4:30pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) at Baltimore Ravens — The Ravens have locked up home field throughout the playoffs and will be resting their starters. The Steelers will be fighting for survival, needing to win and get help to make the playoffs. Yet even against backups, the spread is too high for a road team struggling. Steelers win but fail to cover
8pm
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1) — The winner of this battle of 8-7 teams is in the playoffs and the loser is out. CJ Stroud will be starting for the Texans, but Jonathan Taylor has been running well for the Colts. This is one where the home field should be the decider. Colts cover
Sunday, January 7, 1pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5 1/2) at Carolina Panthers — If the 8-8 Buccaneers win, they win the NFC South. If they lose, they are out of the playoffs. The Panthers are the worst team in football, but they have not been getting blown out. They compete hard. The spread is too high for an inconsistent road team against a team with a defense that fights hard. Buccaneers win but fail to cover
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-5) — This was supposed to be a brawl, but instead it’s a meaningless game. The Browns are locked into the five seed and will rest some starters. The Bengals after consecutive trips to the AFC Title Game are out of the playoffs altogether. Jake Browning is not Joe Burrow, but he has played well in stretches. Go with the home crowd and starters against backups. Bengals cover
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-4) — The Lions are enraged after having a win at Dallas stolen from them by miserable officiating. The Vikings are technically alive for the playoffs at 7-9 but need a ton of help. The Vikings looked lifeless last week at home against Green Bay. The Lions can still with some help move up from the three seed to the two seed. God with the angry team at home. Lions cover
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-2) — Both teams are out of the playoffs. This could be Bill Belichick’s final game in New England after 24 years, so expect the Patriots to rally around their embattled leader. Both teams have good defenses and bad quarterback play. Go with the emotional home crowd to send the Evil Hoodie out on top of the team he hates the most. Patriots cover
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3 1/2) — Whoever wins this battle between the 7-9 Falcons and 8-8 Saints has a shot at the playoffs if other results break right. The loser us automatically eliminated from playoff contention. If Tampa Bay loses, the winner of this game wins the NFC South division and would be the four seed hosting a playoff game. The Saints can make the playoffs as a seven seed Wildcard but the Falcons cannot. The Saints went into Tampa Bay last week and humiliated them. The Saints have the better quarterback in Derek Carr, the better running back in Alvin Kamara, the better defense, and the home field. The Falcons looked pathetic in a loss at Chicago. Saints cover
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3 1/2) at Tennessee Titans — The 9-7 Jaguars snapped a four game losing streak last week. The stakes are simple. If the Jaguars win, they win the AFC South and are the four seed hosting a Wildcard playoff game. If they lose, they are out. The Titans are done for the year but their defense fights hard. The Titans are injury-riddled, especially at quarterback. The spread is too high to trust a Jaguars team spiraling downward. Jaguars win but fail to cover
4pm
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Arizona Cardinals — For the second straight year, the 8-8 Seahawks make the playoffs if they win and Green Bay loses. The Cardinals are done for the year but have been vastly improved since Kyler Murray returned. The Cardinals shocked Philadelphia last week. The Seahawks failed to handle business last week at home against an average Pittsburgh team. The Cardinals could very well with this game, but go with the desperate team with everything to play for. Seahawks cover
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-3) — For the second straight year, the 8-8 Packers need only to win their regular season finale at home to make the playoffs. Last year they failed in spectacular fashion. Yet that loss in hindsight was to a vastly improved Detroit team. The Bears are done for the year and very uninspiring outside of quarterback Justin Fields. Jordan Love is improving. At home with everything to play for, trust the Packers to get it done. Packers cover
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-1 1/2) — The Chiefs won the AFC West for the eighth straight year and are locked into the three seed. The Chargers are done for the year. This game will test whether the Chargers starters can beat the Chiefs backups. If not, their next step is a coed touch football game in the park. Chargers cover
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2 1/2) — The 8-8 Broncos and 7-9 Raiders are both done for the year. The Raiders lost a heartbreaker at Indianapolis last week to kill their season. The Raiders won by one point at Denver in the season opener, but both teams are significantly better than they were earlier in the year. Russell Wilson is benched for good, so Jarrett Stidham will start again against the team he started for as a replacement last year. The Broncos have a good defense and the Raiders defense is vastly improved. The Raiders pound the rock now. That should be the difference despite a lack of home field advantage. Most importantly, the players desperately want interim coach Antonio Pierce to get the job permanently. The players will fight hard for him. Raiders cover
Philadelphia Eagles (-5 1/2) at New York Giants — The Eagles started 10-1 but have been reeling since. They have gone 1-4 down the stretch, with the only win against the Giants two weeks ago in Philadelphia. In that game the Eagles barely survived on the final play. The 11-5 Eagles with a win and a Dallas loss will win the NFC East and be the two seed. Otherwise they fall to the five seed. The Giants are done for the year but their defense has fought hard. Tyrod Taylor can play. Although the Eagles have everything to play for, they have not been good enough in recent weeks to trust, especially on the road. Upset special, Giants win outright
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-4 1/2) — The Rams after a 3-6 start have gone 6-1 since to clinch a playoff spot. The Rams have struggled in recent years against the 49ers, but this time the 49ers will be playing backups. The 49ers have clinched home field throughout the playoffs and will probably rest dome starters. The Rams can still drop from the six seed to the seven seed, but that might not be much of an incentive for the Rams to play their starters for long if at all. In a battle of backups, go with the 49ers. 49ers cover
Dallas Cowboys (-13 1/2) at Washington Commanders — This could be Riverboat Ron Rivera’s final game in DC. Rumors have him being fired after the regular season. The Commanders are done for the year. The 11-5 Cowboys with a win will win the NFC East and the two seed. If they lose and Philadelphia wins, the Cowboys drop to the five seed and would start the playoffs on the road rather than at home. The Cowboys have everything to play for and the Commanders have nothing to play for. Yet the spread is way too high for a road team that has struggled on the road all year. The players may rally around Rivera. Their quarterback and defense are unspectacular but not horrendous either. A garbage touchdown is certainly possible. Cowboys win but fail to cover
8pm
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins — The 10-6 Bills take on the 11-5 Dolphins in a critical AFC East showdown. The winner of this game wins the AFC East. The Bills are a surprising 3 point road favorite. Yes, the Bills have won 4 straight. Yes, the Dolphins got carpet bombed 56-19 at Baltimore. Yes, the Bills crushed the Dolphins 48-20 in Buffalo. The spread still seems ridiculous. The Dolphins have a ton of speed. As long as Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hillare playing, the Dolphins should be favored. If the Dolphins lose, they are still the six seed Wildcard. If the Bills lose, they are most likely out altogether. The hot streak favors the Bills, Josh Allen is playing well, and Buffalo has a defense. Yet this is one where the home field mattes tremendously. In the relatively warm Miami sun rather than the Buffalo snow, go with the speed on offense. Upset special, Dolphins win outright