NFL 2024 Black Monday Head Coach Firing Predictions
Happy New Year. You’re history. Happy Hanukkah. Clean out your desk. Merry Christmas. You’re fired. The NFL coaching carousel is about to spin like a dreidel. The NFL is a cold place in losing environments. The annual ritual of firing coaches on Black Monday is a long-established NFL tradition. As retired coach Jerry Glanville used to say, the NFL stands for “Not For Long.”
Thankfully, Black Monday now comes past the holiday season, allowing coaches to enjoy time with their families. The pink-slips come afterward.
This season’s NFL 2024 Black Monday Coach Firing Carousel
The 2024 regular season coaching carousel saw three coaches fired during the season. The Chicago Bears fired Matt Eberflus. The New Orleans Saints fired Dennis Allen. The New York Jets fired Robert Sales. More changes will come Black Monday.
A time to fire: Rules of the Black Monday coach firing ritual
Owners can fire any employee they want whenever they want, but that does not mean they should. There are certain unwritten rules that owners should consider before firing (or not) NFL coaches on Black Monday.
- Never fire a coach after a winning season. No matter how badly the team underachieves, some teams would kill to go 9-8.
- Do not fire a coach unless it is absolutely definite that a better replacement option exists.
- Do not fire a coach after one season unless there is zero hope for improvement. Bill Parcells won only three games in his first season as an NFL head coach. Jimmy Johnson won one game. Tom Landry won zero games and tied one.
- Do not fire a coach after two losing seasons if they had four or five winning seasons prior. Allow two or even three bad seasons if the coach has the ability to turn things around.
- If a coach has won a Super Bowl for you, leave him alone for a few years.
- If he has won two Super Bowls for you in non-consecutive years, give him a lifetime contract.
- Lastly, if it is a close call, give the coach one more year.
With that, here are the NFL 2024 Black Monday Coach Firing predictions.
Black Monday firings that are necessary:
New York Jets: Jeff Ulbrich
What should happen:
Jeff Ulbrich is just a placeholder. The Jets may also move on from Aaron Rodgers. The team needs a quarterback whisperer who will unleash Rodgers or nurture his replacement.
What will happen:
Ulbrich is gone.
Chicago Bears: Thomas Brown
What should happen: Thomas Brown is also just a placeholder. The Bears need to develop rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. This team also needs a quarterback whisperer.
What will happen: Brown is gone.
New York Giants: Brian Daboll
What should happen: Brian Daboll just saw the Giants snap their 10 game losing streak. Yet the Giants have no talent whatsoever. Ownership traded away Saquon Barkley, who is lighting up the league in Philadelphia. The Giants have no quarterback.
What will happen:
Despite being utterly bereft of talent, the Giants ownership will make the coach the fall guy to deflect from their own organizational bungling. Daboll is gone.
Deserve to stay but will be fired: None.
Deserve to stay and will stay:
Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce
What should happen:
Josh McDaniels was an unmitigated disaster. Antonio Pierce inherited a mess. The defense was a mess. Now with Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator, the defense is vastly improved. The secondary is even improved. The Raiders have very little talent on offense. They have no quarterback, no running back, and no offensive line. Despite a 10 game losing streak, Pierce held the team together and they won consecutive games heading into their finale. He deserves to continue, especially if the Raiders finally draft offensive talent.
What will happen:
Mark Davis is already paying money to ex-coaches Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels. He knows the cupboard is bare. Pierce stays, but the team must improve in 2025.
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo
What should happen: After 24 years of Bill Belichick, Mayo is in his first season. Going into the finale the Patriots have the top pick in the Draft. Drake Maye has showed promise as a rookie quarterback. Mayo deserves another year to see what he can do.
What will happen:
Robert Kraft is a beloved owner. He would lose some of that luster if he quickly fires Mayo. Mayo will be given more time.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Doug Pederson
What should happen: This team was 8-3 last year before Trevor Lawrence got injured and the team fell apart. This year has been a disaster. Lawrence went down again on an illegal hit but the team was already a mess before his injury.
What will happen: Shad Khan is known as a patient owner. Pederson is a good coach who took the Jaguars to the playoffs two years ago. The team is in rebuilding mode and he deserves to be part of it. He fixed Lawrence once and can do so again. Barring a shocking development, Pederson isn’t going anywhere.
Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy
What should happen: After three straight 12 win seasons, the Cowboys were embarrassed at home in the Wildcard round last year. This year the Cowboys suffered several blowout home losses. Dak Prescott became the highest paid player in the league and CeeDee Lamb became the highest paid receiver. The roof caved in. Prescott is out injured, but the real problem is Prescott is overrated. Jerry Jones shelled out dollars to players that did not deserve it. Jerry desperately wants to win another Super Bowl, but a better alternative is not out there.
What will happen: Jerrah will huff and puff and count his money, but McCarthy isn’t going anywhere. He has never been a good fit in Dallas, but he is a good coach. Jerrah has gotten more patient with coaches in his older years after driving away good coaches in his younger years. If McCarthy leaves, it’s because he is fed up. That is not his style.
Could go either way:
Tennessee Titans: Brian Callahan
What should happen: Mike Vrabel never should have been fired. Brian Callahan is only 3-13, but the team has little talent. They let Derrick Henry leave, and he is now crushing it in Baltimore.
What will happen: Flip a coin. A coach needs more than one year, but the Titans ownership may just decide to call this a failed experiment.
New Orleans Saints: Darren Rizzi
What should happen:
Dennis Allen is a terrific defensive coordinator who is not a head coach. Darren Rizzi is a good special teams coach who briefly sparked the Saints upon taking over on an interim basis. The Saints regressed in their last two games, but they have been devastated by injuries. They were down to their fourth string quarterback last week and their third stringer this week. Rizzi has the fire and passion to be an NFL head coach.
What will happen:
Rizzi should stay unless a better option exists. Right now it does not. Rizzi is given a chance.
Cleveland Browns: Kevin Stefanski:
What should happen: After the Browns went on the road in the playoffs and shocked Pittsburgh, Stefanski was a hero. Then owner Jimmy Haslam got rid of Baker Mayfield in favor of Deshaun Watson. Injuries had the Browns starting their fourth stringer Dorian Thompson-Robinson by the end of the year. Stefanski deserves to see if Watson has any gas left in the tank.
What will happen: This is another case of ownership possibly throwing a coach under the bus to hide the incompetence of the ownership. Stefanski could be gone, but keeping him would not be the worst decision. The Browns make awful decisions, which bodes badly for Stefanski.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles:
This may seem odd given that the Buccaneers are 9-7 and on the verge of winning their fourth straight NFC South Championship. Todd Bowles is a very good defensive coordinator. Yet this year his offense is playing well as Baker Mayfield is lighting up the league. The problem is Bowles wins just enough games to survive but does not seem to be able to get a team with talent to the next level.
What will happen:
If the Buccaneers make the playoffs, Bowles isn’t going anywhere. If the Buccaneers collapse against a weak Carolina team in their finale and miss the playoffs, he probably still stays. He may be gone next year unless he can finally make a deep playoff run with a talented roster.
eric