NFL 2024 Week 18 Prequel
THIS. IS. WHEN. THE. BIG. DOGS. COME. OUT.
Saturday, January 4, 2025, 4:30pm
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-17 1/2) — The 11-5 Ravens with a win lock up the AFC North and the three seed. If they lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Ravens lose the division and drop to the Wildcard, meaning road playoff games. A Browns win would be the upset of the year. It is not going to happen. The Ravens are too focused and Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will put this game away early. A garbage touchdown could defeat the spread. Ravens win but fail to cover
8pm
Cincinnati Bengals (-2 1/2) at Pittsburgh Steelers — The 8-8 Bengals have won four straight but they need to win and have Denver lose to sneak into the playoffs as a Wildcard. The 10-6 Steelers are already a Wildcard. If they win and Baltimore loses, the Steelers win the AFC North and are the three seed. Yet Baltimore is heavily favored and their game will be over by the time this game starts. If Baltimore wins, the Steelers have nothing to play for. Mike Tomlin could rest his starters. Joe Burrow has been lights out but has not gotten much help from his defense. If the Steelers play their starters, the calculus changes. Assuming the Steelers play the backups, go with the hot offense playing the starters. Bengals cover
Sunday, January 5, 1pm
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-4 1/2) — The 9-7 Texans won the AFC South and are locked into the four seed. DeMeco Ryans will most likely rest his starters. Yet the Titans are so awful that the Texans might still defeat the point spread. Titans win but fail to cover
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7 1/2) — The 8-8 Falcons need to win and have Tampa Bay lose to win the NFC South and sneak into the playoffs as the four seed. The Panthers are done for the year but they have been playing better football in recent weeks. Rookie Michael Penix has serious talent. He will make sure the Falcons handle their business, although the Panthers could get a garbage touchdown to beat the spread. Falcons win but fail to cover
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-14) — The 9-7 Buccaneers have a simple mission. Win at home and win the NFC South to be the four seed in the playoffs. If the Buccaneers lose and Atlanta wins, the Buccaneers are out. The Buccaneers with a win and a Rams loss can even move up to the three seed. With everything to play for, the Buccaneers will put this game away early. Baker Mayfield has been on fire. He has so many weapons. The Saints are down to their fourth string quarterback. Buccaneers cover
Buffalo Bills (-2 1/2) at New England Patriots — The 13-3 Bills clinched the AFC East and are locked into the two seed. Sean McDermott may rest his starters. The Patriots put up a fight a couple of weeks ago in Buffalo. The Patriots with a loss are guaranteed the top pick in the 2025 Draft, but Jerod Mayo could be coaching for his job. Drake Maye has talent. The Bills have nothing to play for. The Patriots would love to end their miserable season on a high note. Upset special, Patriots win outright
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5 1/2) — Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The Jaguars still have a shot at the top Draft pick. Joe Flacco is better than Mac Jones. Jonathan Taylor still runs well. Colts cover
Washington Commanders (-3) at Dallas Cowboys — The 11-5 Commanders have clinched a Wildcard spot and are currently the six seed. A loss combined with a Green Bay win would drop the Commanders to the seven seed. This means Dan Quinn will probably play his starters. The Cowboys have been terrible at home all year. Jayden Daniels has been spectacular. Commanders cover
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3 1/2) — The 13-3 Eagles clinched the NFC East and are locked into the two seed. Nick Sirianni will rest his starters with one notable exception. Former Giants running back Saquon Barkley has passed 2,000 yards rushing and needs another 101 yards to break Erick Dickerson’s all time single season rushing record. It would be even sweeter to break the record against the team that let him walk. Yet he may be pulled early if he struggles while playing with backups. The Giants are terrible and still have a shot at the top Draft pick. Even playing against backups, asking the Giants to win this game on the road is too much to ask. Eagles cover
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9 1/2) — The 11-5 Packers clinched the seven seed Wildcard. Yet if they win and Washington loses, the Packers can move up to the six seed. This means Matt LaFleur will most likely be playing his starters. That is bad news for the Bad News Bears, who have lost 10 straight. Packers cover
4pm
Seattle Seahawks (-2 1/2) at Los Angeles Rams — The 10-6 Rams clinched the NFC West and are the current three seed. This point spread makes no sense unless Sean McVay rests his starters.. Yet the Rams should play their starters. If they lose and Tampa Bay wins, the Rams fall to the four seed. So the Rams do have something to play for. Upset special, Rams cover
Miami Dolphins (-2 1/2) at New York Jets — The 8-8 Dolphins are on the outside looking in. They need to win and hope Denver loses to sneak into the playoffs as the seven seed wildcard. The Dolphins have everything to play for. The Jets are horrendous. This could be Aaron Rodgers’s final game in his only season with the Jets. Dolphins cover
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-9 1/2) — The 15-1 Chiefs have nothing to play for. They have clinched the AFC West and the top seed with home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the first round bye. Walrus Andy Reid will rest his starters. The 9-7 Broncos have everything to play for. They are currently the seven seed Wildcard. If they win, they are in. If they lose and either Miami or Cincinnati wins, the Broncos are out. While the Chiefs would love to keep their rivals from the playoffs for the 9th straight year, getting healthy for the postseason matters more. Yet the spread is still too high. Broncos win but fail to cover
Los Angeles Chargers (-5 1/2) at Las Vegas Raiders — The Raiders have won two straight after losing 10 straight, but the 10-6 Chargers are on a mission. The Chargers have clinched a Wildcard and are currently the six seed. If the Chargers win and Pittsburgh loses, the Chargers move up to the five seed. Pittsburgh plays the day before so by the time this game kicks off, the Chargers could already be locked into the six seed. In that scenario Jim Harbaugh might rest his starters, Either way, the Chargers have more talent than a Raiders team with very little talent on offense. Home field advantage has rarely mattered in this rivalry. Chargers win but fail to cover
San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Arizona Cardinals — Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs. Neither one is in position for a top 10 Draft pick. Go with Kyler Murray and James Conner even though home field does not matter in this series. Upset special, Cardinals win outright
8pm
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2 1/2) — This is why we watch football. The 272nd and last game of the regular season is also its best. For the first time in NFL history, two 14-2 teams will compete in the regular season. This is winner take all. The winner clinches the NFC North and the top seed in the conference along with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a the first round bye. The loser drops to the five seed Wildcard and plays road playoff games. The Lions have the better offense but more injuries on defense. Dan Campbell gambles are the X factor. Go with the home field. The Vikings are a great team but the Lions seem to be a team of destiny. This could be a shootout for the ages. Lions cover