NFL 2025-2026 AFC Playoff Permutations and Combinations
The first 17 weeks of the 2025 NFL regular season are in the history books. Week 18 is here.
This week football jargon not used for 51 weeks is said over and over. We learn who controls their own destiny and who needs help making the playoffs. Some years it seems almost everybody has a shot at the playoffs. This year the AFC playoff picture has very few possibilities.
That’s our assessment of the 2025-2026 AFC playoff permutations and combinations.
Only the top seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs gets the first-round bye.
The NFC playoff picture also has very few possibilities.
Six of the eight AFC Week 18 games have playoff implications, but mainly in terms of seeding. Six of the seven playoff spots have been clinched. Two of the four AFC Divisions have been clinched.
Now for the AFC Playoff picture.
1.) Denver Broncos (13-3): The Broncos control their own destiny. The Broncos clinched the AFC West, breaking the Kansas City streak of nine straight seasons and are currently the one seed. If the Broncos win their regular season finale, they clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the first round bye. if the Broncos lose, they still keep the top seed if New England and Jacksonville both lose. If the Broncos lose and New England or Jacksonville wins, the Broncos fall to the two seed. If the Broncos lose and New England and Jacksonville both win, the Broncos fall to the three seed.
2.) New England Patriots (13-3): The Patriots clinched the AFC East, breaking the Buffalo streak of five straight seasons. The Patriots are currently the two seed and would play a home playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If the Patriots win their regular season finale and Denver loses, the Patriots move up to the top seed with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye. If the Patriots lose and Jacksonville wins, the Patriots fall to the three seed.
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4): The Jaguars have clinched a playoff spot and are one game up in the AFC South. They are currently the three seed. They would play a game at home on Wildcard weekend. If the Jaguars win their regular season finale and either Denver or New England loses, the Jaguars would move up to the two seed. If the Jaguars win and both Denver and New England lose, the Jaguars would vault to the top seed with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye. If the Jaguars lose, they can keep the three seed as long as Houston also loses. Yet if the Jaguars lose and Houston wins, the Jaguars lose the tie-breaker and the division. They would fall to the five seed Wildcard and play road playoff games.
4.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7): The Steelers control their own destiny. The Steelers are one game up in the AFC North and are currently the four seed. The Steelers have only one path to the playoffs. The regular season has a showdown between the Steelers and Baltimore. If the Steelers win, they win the division. They cannot move higher than the four seed and would host a playoff game on Wildcard weekend. If the Steelers lose, they lose the tie-breaker and are out of the playoffs altogether.
5.) Houston Texans (11-5): The Texans are one game back in the AFC South. They are currently the five seed and would play a road playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If they win their regular season finale and Jacksonville loses, Houston wins the division tie-breaker and moves up to the three seed with a home playoff game on Wildcard Weekend.
6.) Los Angeles Chargers (11-5): The Chargers have clinched a Wildcard and will play a road playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. As of now they are the six seed. If they win their regular season finale and Houston loses, the Chargers move up to the five seed. If the Chargers lose and Buffalo wins, the Chargers fall to the seven seed.
7.) Buffalo Bills (11-5): (11-5): The Bills have clinched a Wildcard and will play a road playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. As of now they are the seven seed. If they win their regular season finale and the Chargers lose, the Bills move up to the six seed. If the Bills win and the Chargers and Houston both lose, the Bills rise to the five seed.
Outside looking in:
8.) Baltimore Ravens (8-8): The Ravens control their own destiny. The Ravens are one game back in the AFC North and have a showdown with Pittsburgh. If the Ravens win in Week 18, they win the tie-breaker and grab the division and the four seed. They would host a playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If the Ravens lose, they are out.
Here are the AFC games with playoff implications:
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3)
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
Indianapolis Colts (8-8) at Houston Texans (11-5)
New York Jets (3-13) at Buffalo Bills (11-5)
Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
Predictions:
1.) Broncos 14-3
2.) Patriots 14-3
3.) Jaguars 13-4
4.) Steelers 10-7
5.) Texans 12-5
6.) Bills 12-5
7.) Chargers 11-6
Out — Baltimore 8-9
Wildcard Round:
7.) Chargers at 2.) Patriots
6.) Bills at 3.) Jaguars
5.) Texans at 4.) Steelers
Divisional Round:
6.) Bills at 1.) Broncos
5.) Texans at 2.) Patriots
AFC Title Game: 6.) Bills vs 2.) Patriots
All the pressure is on the Bills. The Bills will never have an easier road to the Super Bowl than this despite being on the road. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Joe Burrow and the Bengals, and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are all sitting at home. The Broncos and Patriots are young, inexperienced teams. The Jaguars might be their toughest test. It is the Bills who will hold the Lamar Hunt Trophy as the AFC Champion. This time, wi everyone from Jack Kemp to Tim Russert watching in heaven, the Bills Mafia will finally get to see their team hold up the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
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