NFL 2025 Week 18 Prequel
Saturday, January 3, 2025, 4:30pm
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2 1/2) — The 8-8 Panthers defeated the 7-9 Buccaneers two weeks ago. Initially this was billed as whoever wins this game wins the NFC South with the loser out of the playoffs. That has been modified. The Buccaneers with a loss are absolutely out. The Panthers can lose and still win the division as long as Atlanta wins. If the Panthers and Atlanta both lose, The Buccaneers take the division. Home field matters very little in this series. The Buccaneers have melted down since a 6-2 start. Todd Bowles, who might be a Black Monday casualty, tried to blame Baker Mayfield. The Panthers have the better defense and the momentum. The Buccaneers are trying to win the NFC South for the 5th straight year, but go with the team playing better football. Upset special, Panthers win outright
8pm
Seattle Seahawks (-1 1/2) at San Francisco 49ers — This is why we watch football. The 13-3 Seahawks face off against the 12-4 49ers for all the marbles. The winner takes the NFC West and the top seed in the NFC with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the first round bye. The loser is a Wildcard who has to play road playoff games. In Week 1, the 49ers went into Seattle and beat the Seahawks 17-13. As great as the Seahawks are playing, especially on defense, Brock Purdy has more offensive weapons than Sam Darnold. Upset special, 49ers win outright
Sunday, January 4, 1pm
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-10 1/2) — The Colts are eliminated. The 10-5 Texans are already a wildcard. With a win and a Jacksonville loss, the Texans win the AFC South and would have a playoff game at home. The Texans have a great defense. Go with the team that has everything to play for. The Colts are an injured mess that started 7-1 and then went 1-7. The Philip Rivers experiment seems to have ended before the final game as Riley Leonard gets the start. Texans cover
Dallas Cowboys (-4 1/2) at New York Giants — Both teams are eliminated. The Cowboys have the better offense while the Giants got a rare win last week against the only team more wretched than them and playing backups. Jaxson Dart has shown enough promise to justify a closer game, especially against a porous Dallas defense. Cowboys win but fail to cover
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7 1/2). — Both teams are eliminated. The Browns are playing for Myles Garrett to break the sack record. Both teams might be playing to save their coach’s job. Joe Burrow is playing, and his offense against the stout Cleveland defense is the chess match. Yet the Browns beat Pittsburgh last week, which is their Super Bowl. The Bengals should roll at home. Bengals cover
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3) — Both teams are eliminated, yet playing decent football indecent weeks. Tyler Shough may be the Saints answer at quarterback. The Falcons stunned a good Rams team. Kirk Cousins might be playing his final game in Atlanta. Bijan Robinson is still all world. Home field rarely mattes in this series, and the Saints have a decent defense. This could go down to the final play, but the Falcons are a confident bunch of after last week. Falcons cover
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-6 1/2) — The Vikings are eliminated. The 9-6-1 Packers are locked into the seven seed Wildcard and will play road playoff games as long as they stay in the playoffs. Since they cannot move higher, the Packers may rest their starters. The Vikings have had a rough season, but their starters can beat the Green Bay backups. Vikings cover
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-12 1/2) — The Titans are eliminated. The 12-4 Jaguars have a ton to play for. They are currently the three seed with a home playoff game. If they win and either Denver or New England loses, the Jaguars move up to the two seed. If the Jaguars win and both Denver and New England lose, the Jaguars rocket to the top seed with home field throughout the playoffs and a first round bye. On the flip side, if the Jaguars lose and Houston wins, the Jaguars lose the AFC South tie-breaker and the division. The Jaguars in that scenario tumble all the way to the five seed Wildcard and would play a road playoff game. The Jaguars have everything to play for and are playing like it in ha king won 6 straight. The Titans lack the talent to compete. Jaguars cover
4pm
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7) — The Jets are eliminated. The 11-5 Bills stumbled at home last week on the final play of the game against Philadelphia. That means their 5 year reign is AFC East champions is over. The Bills are a Wildcard and will play road playoff games. Currently the seven seed, they may decide to rest players even though they could move up one seed. The Bills will be enraged after losing a one-point heartbreaker at home against Philadelphia. This is another game of one team with everything to play for against a team lacking talent. Bills cover
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7 1/2) — The Cardinals are eliminated. The 11-5 Rams stunning loss at Atlanta dropped them from the five seed to the six seed. If they win and get help, they could go back up to the five seed. Either way, they are playing a road playoff game. Yet the five seed would be traveling to a warm weather city to play a weaker team while the six seed will be playing in a cold weather city against a very good defense. This is also yet another case of an angry good team coming off a tough loss in the Rams against an untalented team that ay fire their coach on Black Monday in the Cardinals. Expect the Rams offense to explode and get their frustrations out. This game could be over by halftime. Rams cover
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-12/2) — The 11-5 Chargers home loss to Houston knocked them out of their division race. They are currently the six seed. They choose to rest their starters despite the chance to move up or down one seed. The Chargers will play a road playoff game no matter what. The 13-3 Broncos have a clear mission. They have already clinched the AFC West. If they win this game, they maintain the top seed in the conference with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye. If they lose and either New England or Jacksonville wins, the Broncos fall to the two seed. If the Broncos lose and New England and Jacksonville both win, the Broncos fall to the three seed. They would have to host a Wildcard playoff game rather than get the week off. The Broncos are playing starters and the Chargers are playing backups. Trey Lance is filling in for Justin Herbert. Yet the chargers defense is good enough to prevent a blowout. Broncos win but fail to cover
Kansas City Chiefs (-5 1/2) at Las Vegas Raiders — Both teams are eliminated. After 9 straight AFC West crowns, 5 Super Bowls including the last 3, and 3 Super Bowl wins, the Chiefs are for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era out of the playoffs with a losing season at 6-10. The 2-14 Raiders with a loss will have the most losses in a season ever in franchise history. The Raiders would also be guaranteed the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Raiders have put Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby on injured reserve, leading to accusations of tanking. The RaIders were blown out last week at home by the previously 2-13 Giants. Pete Carroll may be a one and done Black Monday coaching casualty. Travis Kelce may retire after this game. Geno Smith has been ruled out, which means the Raiders might actually be trying to win. If the Raiders were truly tanking, they would play Smith. For some reason, the Raiders play better against the Chiefs in Kansas City than at home. After their listless home performance against the Giants, it is hard to give the Raiders the benefit of the doubt, even against a wounded Chiefs team. Chiefs cover
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-11 1/2) — The Dolphins are eliminated. Mike MacDaniel could be a Black Monday coaching casualty, but the odds are he stays. The 13-3 Patriots are currently the two seed with a home playoff game. They have already clinched the AFC East. If they lose and Jacksonville wins, the Patriots fall to the three seed. Conversely, if they win and Denver loses, the Patriots grab the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a first round bye.As great as the Patriots are playing, Quin Ewers is no ordinary backup. He has played well enough to trust him for a garbage touchdown to beat the high spread. Patriots win but fail to cover
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) — The Commanders are eliminated. The defending champion Eagles are 11-5. Yet the team they beat in last year’s NFC Title Game has fallen off of a cliff due to injuries. The Eagles are currently the three seed and will host a playoff game. If they win and Chicago loses, the Eagles move up to the two seed. The Commanders are an injured mess and the Eagles defense is carrying their offense. Eagles cover
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2 1/2) — The Lions are eliminated. The 11-5 Bears have already clinched the NFC North. They are currently the two seed. However, if they lose and Philadelphia wins, the Bears drop to the three seed. Either way, the Bears will be playing their first playoff game at home. Ben Johnson would love to put the final dagger in his former team this season. The Bears have quieted virtually all of the doubters, just as the Lions did three years ago. The Lins will bounce back next year, but this is the year for the Bears to show what they can do, especially on defense. They will be angry after a tough loss at San Francisco that went down to the final play. Bears cover
8pm
Baltimore Ravens (-3 1/2) at Pittsburgh Steelers — This is why we watch football. The 8-8 Ravens and 9-7 Steelers have a simple situation. The winner captures the AFC North and hosts a Wildcard game. The loser is out of the playoffs. For much of the last 20 years, John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have fielded teams that are mirror images of each other. These teams win with hard nosed running and defense. To quote stone Cold Steve Austin, this game is going to be a bare-fisted slobberknocker. Home field is irrelevant. This is a last man standing war of attrition. The Steelers won 27-22 in Baltimore in Week 14. The rematch will be just as intense to close out the 2025 nFL regular season. As great as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are, the Ravens may be out of gas after willing themselves to get this far. Aaron Rodgers three years ago needed to win one game at home to make the playoffs. Instead, it was his final game in Green Bay as he was bounced out of the playoffs. The talent favors the Ravens, but this is one of those games where Mike Tomlin confounds everyone. If it comes down to a field goal, trust Chris Boswell in any weather elements in that stadium. With everything on the line, expect TJ Watt to play. Steelers cover