Of all the people running for President in 2012, Tim Pawlenty is the one that is the most difficult to put into any category. Yet his lack of a natural niche constituency may work to his advantage.
He is not the frontrunner. If anybody is, that would be Mitt Romney.
He is not the dominant policy wonk. That would be Newt Gingrich.
He is not known primarily as a social conservative, although he is one. That is Rick Santorum.
He is not the Tea Party favorite. That would be Michele Bachmann.
He is not known as the best fundraiser in the GOP. That would be Haley Barbour.
So given that in virtually every category, is Tim Pawlenty even a legitimate candidate?
Absolutely.
Tim Pawlenty is likable. In fact, he is very likable.
Yes, he has good looks and a slight resemblance to John Cusack. He is tall with good hair, and is inoffensive.
Yet despite being a white Midwestern governor, he is not boring. He may come across as calm and quiet compared to his more bombastic colleagues, but I have met him and heard him speak. He knows how to charm a crowd.
When he spoke to the Republican Jewish Coalition several years ago in Florida, the older grandmothers loved him. They showed him pictures of their daughters and granddaughters and offered to set Pawlenty up on dates. He politely explained that he was not Jewish and happily married. The ladies did not care. They liked him that much.
Tim Pawlenty is willing to talk about “Sam’s Club Republicans.” He lost one of his parents when he was very young, and knows what it is like to struggle financially. He was not born with the proverbial spoon.
He has a playful side, although that has been toned down since he began being talked about as a presidential contender. He once got a reporter in a headlock and jokingly gave him a “noogie.” He used to have a mullet. The mullet was cut off.
Yet Tim Pawlenty has leadership experience. As Governor of Minnesota, he had to deal with the Minnesota bridge crisis. When the bridge collapsed, he shined during those dark moments. It was not 9/11 or Hurricane Katrina, but it was a serious crisis that devastated his state, and he was a sober, clear, and yes, compassionate, leader.
Because he got along well with Democrats, there is a tendency to see him as a moderate. His governing record was fairly conservative. He was able to govern as a conservative in a fairly liberal state without being combative or acrimonious. He simply gets along with people.
If you ask liberals, they will tell you that some of the candidates running for the 2012 GOP nomination scare the daylights out of them. Pawlenty does not.
So what should Tim Pawlenty do?
While John Edwards is a horrendous role model, the Edwards strategy of political advancement is actually a good model for Pawlenty to follow.
The 2008 Pawlenty was very similar to Edwards in 2000. Pawlenty was seen as likable and friendly, and got his name tossed into the rumor mill for vice presidential contenders. He encouraged the rumors by not discouraging them, and actually was seen as one of the favorites if not the favorite. In the same way Edwards was passed over for the bolder choice of Joe Lieberman, Palwnety lost out to the stunning choice of Sarah Palin.
Yet just being in the conversation sets up the next step. For Edwards in 2004, it was running for President while everybody whispered that he was really running for Vice President.
Edwards ran a positive campaign, was nice to everybody, and offended nobody. He was so liked that when he came in second, he was able to basically force himself onto the John Kerry ticket. Kerry may not have wanted him, but the entire rest of the party did.
If Pawlenty runs a positive campaign and is very complimentary of his opponents, he does not have to win the nomination. If he comes in second, or drops out very early and supports the frontrunner, he may be too likable not to put on the ticket. If the ticket wins, he is Vice President. If the ticket loses, he is the frontrunner for 2016 in a GOP that is still very hierarchical.
Going back to Edwards, forget the scandal that destroyed him. Under normal circumstances, his strategy would have positioned him perfectly to be the 2008 nominee. He had the misfortune of running against two unprecedented candidates that made history. He could not have expected both of them, especially the man who won. Yet in terms of a strategy, it was sound.
Yet Pawlenty will insist that he is actually trying to win the nomination now. He has to say that. So given this, what are his pluses and minuses?
His main negative is not his fault. The GOP is very structured and orderly. Despite the media insisting the race is “wide open,” it really is not. It will be Mitt Romney unless somebody can become a credible alternative.
That is how Pawlent benefits. He is credible. He may not be the first choice of many people, but he is a very plausible “consensus” candidate. He is not going to light up a room, but he is “acceptable.” Every wing of the party can look at him and say “I can live with this guy.”
This might not be an inspirational approach, especially since in the battle of competence vs ideology, ideology usually wins. Yet after years of very ideological and often ineffective government, people might be willing to look at somebody who can just run things effectively.
In a football expression, Pawlenty does not have to be a superstar quarterback. He just has to “manage the game.” This means do not make big mistakes.
The social, economic, and foreign policy conservatives all have their rock star candidates. The Tea Party people, the libertarians, and the moderates all have different agendas.
Yet Tim Pawlenty will not have any of these groups in a state of open revolt. Democrats and independents will not find him to be crazy. He has crossover appeal.
Like many Republicans, he seems better suited to a general election than a primary campaign.
Many of the die hards will see their candidate drop out early. They will need to find a second choice, somebody they can settle on.
Tim Pawlenty can unite the party. He can work with people.
He may not be everybody’s favorite rock star, but he is likable, smart, and effective.
In 2012, that very well may be enough to propel him onto the ticket. If the hierarchy finally breaks, he may not have to settle for the second slot.
eric