Like a blinking VCR that is right twice a day, the democrats do get things right in equal abundance. While their presidential candidates would offer America a disastrous set of policy prescriptions, at least the democrats have a legitimate choice of disasters to choose from in the primaries. Republicans normally do not have such luck.
Republican candidates do not win primary elections. They get anointed. Pat Buchanan once remarked that “The (New York) Republican Party of 1996 is equivalent to Russia in 1956.” He was referring to the arcane ballot rules that tilt heavily in favor of the frontrunner, often keeping challengers from even having the right to compete. Not only is this unhealthy for democracy, it is unhealthy for the winner of the primary.
Pundits who complain that the presidential process is so protracted that it causes the best and brightest not to run completely miss the point. Running for president allows candidates to become battle tested. “Star” candidates that back out do not do so because of the process. They realize that they will peak the day they enter the race, and will eventually not win. Colin Powell, the darling of 1996, did not have the fire in the belly. Mario Cuomo opted out in 1992. People lamented that they were far superior to Bob Dole and Bill Clinton, but if they were that superior, they would have run and won. Regardless of how people felt about Clinton or Dole, they met the challenge immortalized in the Guns ‘n’ Roses song “Get in the ring.”
The people who opt out or dither do so because lack of passion is code for “not going to win.” Forget about the strain on the family cliche. There is not a man (or in some cases woman) alive that would turn down the job if offered. It is akin to a young man at work saying Paris Hilton is a bimbo. The man’s coworker responds “you wouldn’t kick her out of bed.” The bottom line is that if human biengs could be given everything easy, be it sex, power or money, they would take it. Real guts involves undertaking an arduous struggle. Running for president is that struggle.
With rare exception, the democrats have had real primaries. Some would say that John Kerry won too quickly in 2004, leaving him “untested” and gaffe prone in the general election. However, he did mortgage his house and roll the dice to win when he looked dead in the water. I give him credit for nothing in terms of his ideology, but that move was gutsy. Most democratic primaries are true tests.
Republican primaries are coronations. The anointed successor gets all the money, governors (state organizations), and county commissioners. The other candidates all fight to be the alternative to the frontrunner in case of a stumble. They avoid attacking the frontrunner until they make the top two, so as to avoid being eliminated from contention for the vice presidential slot. John Edwards perfected this in 2004, and 2008 sees Bill Richardson and Mitt Romney being very gracious towards their rivals.
The frontrunner faces a blip on the road to a pre-ordained win, and it is treated as news. Iowa gave us George HW Bush in 1980, and Pat Robertson in 1988. New Hampshire gave us Pat Buchanan in 1996 and John McCain in 2000. The frontrunners then win everything else, and all is right with the world.
So why is this republican primary different? Because the two rules for anointing the successor are in direct conflict. Republicans always nominate the frontrunner. That is Rudy Giuliani. Republican always nominate the person next in line. That is John McCain.
The democrats have had candidates come out of nowhere, such as Jimmy Carter. Sparing the remark about wishing he had stayed there, this does not happen with republicans. Giuliani should face a brief imagined crisis, and then go on cruise control. Yet McCain is next in line. Despite his maverick reputation, he was the loyal soldier in 2004, actively campaigning for George W. Bush’s reelection, and fiercely defending the war on terror. He wants to expand the war in Iraq at a time when most Americans want out. He is right, they are wrong, and that is a bold gamble. However, he is not as inevitable as Bob Dole.
When Lamar Alexander said to Bob Dole “Senator, it may be your turn, but it isn’t your time,” he was expression frustration that a candidate with a solid campaign (or equally brilliant foreign policy experience such as the cerebral and cordial Dick Lugar) could not dislodge a weak frontrunner, solely because “Bob waited patiently. He earned it.” If that is the criteria, Strom Thurmond would have run again in 2000, only 52 years after his first defeat. Bob Dole was given the nomination, and his untested campaign lost badly. Bill Clinton in 1992 was more battle tested then any candidate in recent memory.
Rudy Giuliani or John McCain will be the nominee. Period. The also rans will also run. Mitt Romney will make a respectable showing. The others…nobody outside of their families will know they even ran. Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson will not run. Newt enjoys playing history professor and Fred enjoys playing Arthur Branch. The pay is better and he only has to answer to the voters every 100 episodes or so.
I like Giuliani and McCain, and will be thrilled with either of them. At least this time, there will be a real battle for the nomination. It’s about time. Beating Hillary Clinton (Obama and Edwards will be destroyed by Lady Macbeth’s Clintonistas, leaving her possibly less tested than previous democratic nominees. I sure hope so.) will require a battle tested candidate. John McCain is a prisoner of war. Rudy Giuliani was there when World War III began. Running for president is a walk in the park compared to horrors they have faced. Competing against each other will not weaken them and leave them vulnerable in the general election. It will strengthen them and allow them to have their weaknesses exposed…and more importantly dealt with…long before the general election. This avoids November surprises, such as the one that nearly cost President Bush in 2000.
The republican party is about to get a lot better off. Coronations are for prom queens and the occasional egomaniacal wife of MacBeth. Giuliani vs McCain will be a battle royale, and our 2008 candidate will have beaten their most worthy opponent.
Giuliani vs McCain. To quote boxing referee (and for young folks the voice of the claymation boxing referee in MTV’s Celebrity Deathmatch) Judge Mills Lane, “It’s time for a good (perhaps) clean fight. LET’S GET IT ON!”
eric
Uhh. I think you spoke to soon on Fred Thompson staying on Law & Order.
Fred may or may not…he needs to get OFF the pot or sit down and shut up.
Just like I tell my kids. “In or out? Make up my mind!”
Oh, I think he is in, he is just letting those that got in TOOOOOO early burn themselves out.