NFL 2025-2026 NFC Playoff Permutations and Combinations
The first 17 weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season are in the history books. Week 18 is here.
This week football jargon not used for 51 weeks is said over and over. We learn who controls their own destiny and who needs help making the playoffs. Some years it seems almost everybody has a shot at the playoffs. This year the NFC playoff picture has very few possibilities. Only one playoff spot remains for two teams. Everything else is a fight for seeding among teams that have already clinched playoff berths.
This brings my assessment of the 2024-2025 NFC playoff permutations and combinations.
Only the top seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs gets the first-round bye.
The AFC Playoff picture is also fairly straightforward.
Five of the eight NFC Week 18 games have playoff implications. Only two of the four NFC Divisions have been clinched.
Now for the NFC Playoff picture.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3): The Seahawks control thrown destiny. The Seahawks have clinched a playoff spot but nothing more. Right now they are the top seed. They are one game up in the NFC West. Next week they have a regular season finale winner-take-all showdown at San Francisco. If the Seahawks win, they win their division and retain the top seed with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the first round bye. If they lose, the Seahawks drop to the five seed and play a road game on Wildcard Weekend.
2.) Chicago Bears (11-5): The Bears have clinched the NFC North and are currently the two seed. The top seed is out of reach. If the Bears lose their regular season finale, they can still remain the two seed if Philadelphia also loses. If the Bears lose and Philadelphia wins, the Bears fall to the three seed. They cannot be lower than the three seed and no matter what are hosting a playoff game on Wildcard Weekend.
3.) The Eagles have clinched the NFC East and are currently the three seed. The top seed is out of reach. If the Eagles win their regular season finale and Chicago loses, the Eagles rise to the two seed. They cannot be lower than the three seed and no matter what are hosting a playoff game on Wildcard Weekend.
4.) Carolina Panthers (8-8): The Panthers control their own destiny. The Panthers are one game up in the NFC South, but they do not hold the tie-breaker and have not have clinched anything. They control their own destiny. They have a Week 18 regular season finale showdown at Tampa Bay. If the Panthers win, they win the NFC South and the four seed. They would host a Wildcard playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If the Panthers lose, they still win the division if Atlanta wins. If the Panthers and Atlanta both lose, the Panthers lose the division tie-breaker and are out.
5.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4): The 49ers control their own destiny. The 49ers are one game back in the NFC West. They are currently the five seed. Next week they have a Week 18 division showdown against Seattle. If the 49ers win, they win the division and conference tie-breakers and vault up to the top seed with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye. If the 49ers lose, they can remain the five seed as long as the Rams also lose. If the 49ers lose and the Rams win, the 49ers fall to the six seed. Unless the 49ers win, they are on the road for their playoff game on Wildcard weekend.
6.) Los Angeles Rams (11-5): The Rams have clinched a Wildcard and are currently the six seed. Although they are only one game back in the NFC West, they lose the key tie-breakers. The division and the top seed are out of reach. They are currently the six seed. If they lose their regular season finale, they remain the six seed. If they win and San Francisco loses, the Rams win that tie-breaker and move up to the five seed. Either way they will play a road playoff game on Wildcard weekend. They cannot move higher than the five seed.
7.) Green Bay Packers (9-6-1): The Packers are locked into the seven seed. They have clinched a Wildcard and will be playing only road playoff games for as long as they last. They can rest their starters.
On the outside looking in:
8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): The Buccaneers control their own destiny. The Buccaneers are on the outside looking in. They are one game back in the NFC South. They have a regular season division showdown at home against Carolina. The Buccaneers only have one path to the playoffs. If they win and Atlanta loses, the Buccaneers win the division tie-breaker and are the four seed. If the Buccaneers win but Atlanta also wins, the Buccaneers lose the tie-breaker and are out. Obviously if the Buccaneers lose, they are out.
Here are the five NFC games with playoff implications:
Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
Arizona Cardinals (3-13) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
Washington Commanders (4-12) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Detroit Lions (8-8) at Chicago Bears (11-5)
Predictions:
1.) 49ers 13-4
2.) Bears 12-5
3.) Eagles 12-5
4.) Panthers 9-8
5.) Seahawks 13-4
6.) Rams 12-5
7.) Packers 9-7-1 (They may rest their starters)
Out: Panthers 8-9
Wildcard Round:
7.) Packers at 2.) Bears
6.) Rams at 3.) Eagles
5.) Seahawks at 4.) Panthers
Divisional Round:
7.) Packers at 1.) 49ers
6.) Rams at 5.) Seahawks
NFC Title Game: 5.) Rams at 1.) 49ers
On paper the Rams have the slightly better offense and the 49ers have the better defense. Home field means noting in this series. The road team frequently wins. Kyle Shanahan seems to have Sean McVay’s number. The Rams on their best day can beat anyone, but the 49ers are their toughest competition. Even the Rams team that won it all in 2021 was dominated by the 49ers for much of the game before basically being gifted the win. The 49ers will be the more rested team, needing only one game to get to this game. The Rams have a brutal playoff path. They may be exhausted by the time this game comes up. The 49ers will hold up the George Halas NFC Championship Trophy but lose again in the Super Bowl
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