I have not spent any time at all covering the Massachusetts Senate race because I do not spend every waking minute covering every single moment in a campaign unless it is a Presidential election.
Like everybody else, I will look at the results and analyze them.
So on Massachusetts Short Shrift Tuesday, I will just offer some disjointed musings.
1) There are no moral victories. Putting a scare into the Democrats by losing closely does nothing for me. Near scares change nothing. We almost lost 300 people due to a Christmas bomber. Almost did not happen thank God, and nothing changed. If we lose, we lost. That’s it.
2) Polls mean nothing. The polls had John Kerry winning the White House and Doug Hoffman winning the NY special election. Turnout is key. Forget C-Span. Watch the Weather Channel.
3) Republicans need to win by 6 or 7 points. The left is already preparing thousands of lawyers and ACORN thugs. They will lie, cheat, and steal. Health care reform is at stake, and they will fight to the death for this seat. Be prepared for a blood feud if we win by less than 5 points.
4) The left will claim that any loss has nothing to do with Obama. They will claim that Martha Coakley is the dumbest candidate on Earth. Yes, she ran an awful campaign. This does not change the fact that opposition to Obamacare is what gave the GOP a fighting chance to begin with. It also does not change the fact that Obama cannot rescue anybody. He has no coattails. None. I will say that if she wins, Obama will get all the credit. Coakley was up by 30 and down by single digits. It had nothing to do with him.
5) If Scott Brown wins and there is an attempt to deny him the seat until Obamacare is passed, that will be a bloody mess. We will know how far in the gutter the left will go, claiming conservatives do it too. No, we don’t. I am not sure they will try this, because the moderates will push back out of fear.
6) I don’t want any Republicans pounding the notion that the Democrats are in trouble. In 1980 the media said the presidential race was too close to call. In 1994 a week before the election the media still had Democrats keeping congress. Let the other side learn the hard way. If we peak too early, we might get humbled. Let the media wonder what happened, not give them time to figure it out.
7) Despite this being Kennedy territory, Martha Coakley was not the woman murdered by a Kennedy. That was Martha Moxley who was murdered by Kennedy cousin Michael Skakel. Those getting this wrong really need to read more. Martha Moxley and Mary Jo Kopechne were killed. Martha Coakley is alive and well, and will hopefully be a healthy private citizen for years to come.
8) Endorsements mean nothing. Curt Schilling and Tom Brady will not sway voters.
9) Martha Coakley should be hammered with every bit of ferocity as Dan Quayle, Sarah Palin, and George W. Bush. I prefer debating issues, but until the left stops being abusive, we need to hit back harder. Ms. Coakley may not be an imbecile. So what? Payback. No more unilateral Republican disarmament.
10) No matter who wins, John Kerry is still an insufferable gasbag, who oh by the way served in Vietnam.
I think Coakley will win because even if she is behind in the votes, the left will steal it anyway. Republicans never learn. We are Charlie Brown kicking the football until we prove otherwise.
Now to watch the votes come in.
eric
Good article. Like primaries, special elections are hard to poll for because the sample sizes tend to be smaller and turnout is far more uncertain. Based on a gut feel over/under would be a Brown victory by 2 (i.e. Brown -2 in football betting terms) translating to a 60/40 in favour of the Republican. Consequently, I’ve put a small amount of money on the Democrat because the odds on her are longer than that.
Brown wins 56% to Coakleys 41%.
It’ll take 45 minutes for the moonbats to figure out that even they can’t steal enough votes without including Connecticut, Rhode Island, and maybe part of New Hamphire.
Of course Brown will win…
but it doesn’t matter, because the Dems will pull the same kind of crap (only worse ) like they did in Mn. with Frankenweeny.
The Thunderbird will be open before 4pm.
FYI,
My polling model with all likely voters suggests that Brown leads by 6.33 as of two days ago. However, excluding partisan pollsters and the Daily Kos Research 2000 poll (which I did during the general election) increases Brown’s lead to 8.6. My gut feel is still a very small Brown victory.
This is an interesting race, but as our good host points out, there’s no point in following the results tunil it’s over. There is no exit polling in Mass.
This is the first real national referendum on Obama and the majority Democrats in Washington, though it is also some other things. It’s a good test of how independents are heading going into the midterms. It’s also a test to see if liberals will stay home if the Dems run candidates like one, who is a conservative “tough on crime” Democrat. Indications are that polling places in the cities are running low on voters. This bodes badly for the Dems. We shall see…
JMJ