I had the pleasure of meeting a top republican pollster recently. I was asked to keep his name confidential.
While I often criticize the Jayson Blair Times and others for using anonymous sources, I hope my credibility will allow me to do so in this instance. I have not verified the statistics I will be citing. I find them believable.
Unlike politicians and television personalities, who prefer the spotlight, pollsters are like mad scientists. They like being deep down below the surface. Karl Rove is all over the television now, but during his White House years he was the Prince of Darkness.
Therefore, it was requested of me not to mention the name of this pollster on my blog. I can only say that he is reputable and respected.
With that, below are some statistical bones to chew on regarding the 2008 Presidential election.
“In 1992, only 19% of the country thinks we are on the right track. We lost that election. In 2008, the number is even lower. Only 15% of the country thinks America is on the right track. That is the lowest number ever in this type of polling.”
“85% of republican men support Israel, as do 85% of Fox News watchers.”
“The lowest support for Israel came from ‘weak democrats,” college educated democrats, and CNN watchers.”
The pollster was not referring to all democrats as weak. The pollster was referring to democrats with a weak party affiliation. Also, the pollster did not state why the percentage of republican men supporting Israel was equal to the percentage of Fox News watchers. Not every republican man watches Fox News, although there is significant overlap. One theory is that Fox News simply has more Pro-Israel news anchors and programming, while CNN offers Christian Amanpour and offensive series such as “God’s Jewish Warriors.”
I can offer analysis up the ying yang, but this pollster offered descriptive statistics, allowing the audience to come to their own analytical conclusions.
“John McCain only needs 30% of the anti-Bush vote to win the election.”
“Americans are against the Iraq War by a two to one margin, but 25% of people against the war want us to stay and finish the job. The democrats keep mistaking sentiment against the war with wanting to lose the war. Americans want to win.”
“McCain is ahead of Obama by 12 points among independents, but down by 3 points overall.”
To me, this suggest an unhappy base. The base will fall in line. In 1992, some republicans acted like spoiled brats and stayed home. They claimed they were standing on principle. No, they were standing on ceremony, and electing the Clintons. Republicans can fight McCain after the election, but there are clear differences between Obama and McCain. Falling in line is vital.
Democrats are crowing about winning special elections in Louisiana and Illinois, including the district of former Speaker Dennis Hastert. These districts were held by republicans for 30 years. The pollster offered some positive news on this front.
“Most newcomers start with low negatives. Both republican candidates started with high negatives that were unusual in nature and unrelated to the national GOP.”
Translation…they were bad candidates. In tough years, good candidates are less inclined to run. Nevertheless, in tough times is when they are needed most.
“Obama is too risky. He is too liberal. He is out of step with Americans on the issue of values.”
“39% of the electorate thought Jimmy Carter was a liberal. He won. 56% of voters saw John Kerry as a liberal, and 49% saw Al Gore as a liberal. They lost. 49% see Obama as a liberal.”
Before people claim that Gore won, he should have coasted to victory the way George HW Bush did. Bill Clinton ran away from liberalism, and Gore ran back to it. This is why he lost during peacetime with a healthy, albeit slowing, economy. He lost because liberals lose.
“With Obama, the key will be how liberal he is perceived as.”
“Resources are precious. At the risk of upsetting the national party, this is a good year to donate to specific seats, not the overall party. We should give to John McCain and republican Senator Norm Coleman, not the National Republican Campaign Committee.”
“We should donate to incumbents and republican open seats. There are very few ‘challenge seats.'”
Sincere comments were then offered about Barack Obama regarding Pastor Jeremiah Wright.
“I don’t believe that Obama believes what Wright believes. I don’t believe Obama believes the anti-American rhetoric or the conspiracy theories regarding the GOP deliberately giving people Aids. Obama did not stay for 20 years at that church because he was anti-American. He stayed with that Church because in Chicago, that was one of the few churches that would give him street cred.
Pastor Wright’s most recent comments are devastating. Pastor Wright said that he was a Pastor, and would do what he had to do, and that Obama was a politician, doing what he had to do.”
It is one thing for republicans to call Obama a hypocrite and a cynic. It is another when one of his own former supporters, even acting out of vengeance, levels those same charges.
“Reverend Wright changed the game. Obama is no longer transcendent. He is just another politician.”
Good pollsters do not spin. They offer cold hard data. The numbers in a vacuum are not good. The democrats have the upper hand in generic matchups.
Yet the news is far from dire. In specific matchups, we have John McCain, and the democrats have another liberal. Yes, he speaks much better than past liberals did. However, even a brilliant messenger cannot obfuscate a flawed message forever.
Obama is a liberal, and if trends continue, Obama will lose because liberals lose.
eric
Frank Luntz
It sounds like Luntz. Every time I read anything from him, I can smell the brimstone from whence he came.
And you gotta love when GOP pollsters comment on Democratic elections. It’s like asking John Hagee who should be the next Pope.
“85% of republican men support Israel…”
I’d love to see the questions they used to arrive at that lovely conclusion. What does he mean? Does he mean that 85% support Israel in everything it does, even it were to take up eating babies? Or does he mean that they support Likud, even if they have no idea what Likud is all about? I would imagine that an unpollably high number of all Americans “support” Israel in the sense that they wish it well. And if people were to be asked whether they supprt line by line everything that Israel ever does, the number would creep down from all asked. I think most Republicans that “support Israel” really don’t have a clue in the world what they’re even talking about, let alone “supporting.” But it’s like that sleazy, sleazy, sleazy GOP “support the troops” schtick – they don’t really mean “support the troops,” no they mean “support Bush.”
“Americans are against the Iraq War by a two to one margin, but 25% of people against the war want us to stay and finish the job. The democrats keep mistaking sentiment against the war with wanting to lose the war. Americans want to win.”
If this ain’t Luntz, then he has a clone out there somewhere… What a scary thought!
Wanting to lose the war??? What kind of idiotic statement is that??? No one wants to “lose the war.” If that were any farther off point this pollster may as well have been asking space aliens! No one wants to lose any war. That’s just stupid.
“Obama is too risky. He is too liberal. He is out of step with Americans on the issue of values.”
It’s true that some people may be dumb enough to believe this (okay, most), but the real reason Obama is in trouble has to do with the color of his skin, not this false claim that he is a “liberal.” He’s more liberal than Karl Rove, yeah, but his record is rather mainstream. Compared with me, a real liberal, Obama is like Francisco Franco! Perhaps Luntz (or whoever this is) should try asking people who don’t watch Fox – ya’ know, educated voters. ;)
JMJ
JMJ;
” No one wants to lose any war. That’s just stupid.”
Define “lose”
Liberals would be more than happy to pack it up and leave Iraq as is.
Not finishing is definally a loss in any sense of the word.
And since you dont really know who the pollster is you abmition to bash FOX again is laughably predictable.
Also, Obama has made abundntly clear in a slew of verbal mishaps that he is clueless when it comes to average americans.
You say “lose,” I say “let Iraq figure itself out.” After all, you have to have something to lose something in the first place. Iraq never belonged to us.
As for Obama, he seems to me to be the most honest and understanding of all the current contenders.
JMJ
You use the word “lose” in terms of ownership. You kow damn well thats not what we are talking about losing.
Understanding?
yea right.
He understands it about as well as you do, which sucks.
Let Iraq figure itself out ?
Please, any common shmuck knows that Iran will consume Iraq in no time.
Just today Obama tried to use the cold war as a means to counter McCain and the facts of his misguidance on middle east policy and being an appeaser.
What he fails to “understand is that ,
#1 During the cuban missle crisis the soviets were not supplying arms and manpower resulting in the deaths of Americans such as the Iranians are doing today.
#2 During Reagans talks with the soviets we were not suffering casualties as a result of theie policies and actions.
Also, the precondition for the talks with the soviets was that we had 20,000 missles pointed at them.
Obama does not get it.
Pee Wee Herman was honest.
Micky, really, lose what? They already have a Shi-a, pro-Iran, thoroughly corrupt government! Mission Ammomplished, right? Oh yeah.
Look, if you mean to say that you believe there’s some light at the end of this Tunnel of Hate and that we should just endless fight over there, then you are in a significant minority. When people say that they want us to pull out peacably, most of them don’t mean leaving behind a Utopia, they just mean let’s not leave like we had to from Vietnam, running for our lives on top of a beseiged embassy. Big difference there. This isn’t about losing anymore. This is about slipping out quietly and hoping all goes as well as possible.
It’s not worth the oil, they’re no longer a threat to Israel, they can barely stand an army, Iran doesn’t want anymore than they’ve already gained, the Sauds et al are happy, Russia and China don’t seem to care – all good there. The only potential outside problems come from Turkey and Syria, and maybe Jordan facing down the Shi-a and Iran. You’d think you guys would get a kick out of that! (Actually, I would too. Let them fight each other for a change! LOL!)
Of course, it’s the interior of Iraq that’s scary. If we leave, there may well be an all out religious war, the likes of which we haven’t seen in hundreds of years. What we need is a strong central Iraqi government – Saddam-lite if you like – that can keep that from happening. Where’s my two favorite Marshalls – Tito and George – when you need them???
Kennedy and Reagan talked to our enemies. They succeeded with that strategy. They didn’t “appease” anyone, or give anyone anything without reciprocity, but they still did succeed. George W Bush has failed with everyone with whom he his administration has not spoken. Point proven.
Obama gets this. In fact, he brings it up ALL THE TIME, MAN. Where ya’ been???
JMJ
Oh, and by the way, a little history lesson, if you don’t mind…
“#1 During the cuban missle crisis the soviets were not supplying arms and manpower resulting in the deaths of Americans such as the Iranians are doing today.”
Yes we were. Look it up. In Africa, Central America, and the Far East. The Cold War was always a lot hotter than advertised. And remember, the Cuban Missle Crisis ended when Kennedy secretly agreed to remove missles from Turkey (albethey a little outdated).
“#2 During Reagans talks with the soviets we were not suffering casualties as a result of theie policies and actions.”
None? Really? Funny. I know a guy who served in Guatamala and El Salvador back then. I think he’d beg to differ.
JMJ
JMJ;
“Look, if you mean to say that you believe there’s some light at the end of this Tunnel of Hate and that we should just endless fight over there, then you are in a significant minority. When people say that they want us to pull out peacably, most of them don’t mean leaving behind a Utopia, they just mean let’s not leave like we had to from Vietnam, running for our lives on top of a beseiged embassy. Big difference there. This isn’t about losing anymore. This is about slipping out quietly and hoping all goes as well as possible.”
That lite would be a free and democratic Iraq as an allie in our war on terror and us plopping our butts down in the middle east to keep any eye the most dysfunctional and dangerous part of the world.
Unfortunally like most libs you just want what you want and tyou want it now. As McCain said , “we will have precense their for 100 years” And it will be years bfore iraq can stand on its own.
The embassy we are building is the largest US embassey ever and will certainly not be beseiged. And who are these “most people” ? Got anything to back that up?
JMJ:
” This is about slipping out quietly and hoping all goes as well as possible.”
Oh, oh, oh. Now I know you cant be seriously ontop of your game. Thats one of the most naive things I’ve ever heard.
Hoping all goes well ?
Man, you been listening to too much Obama and all that hope crap.
Any fool with half a brain knows what will happen if we “slip out”—————————————————————————————————————————————————
JMJ:
“It’s not worth the oil, they’re no longer a threat to Israel, they can barely stand an army, Iran doesn’t want anymore than they’ve already gained, the Sauds et al are happy, Russia and China don’t seem to care – all good there. The only potential outside problems come from Turkey and Syria, and maybe Jordan facing down the Shi-a and Iran. You’d think you guys would get a kick out of that! (Actually, I would too. Let them fight each other for a change! LOL!)”
Once again, very naive and uninformed.
Where do you think Hamas and Hizzbolla get funding ?
Where do you think there weapons come from ?
No threat to Israel ?
Hmmm… Last I remeber the leader of that country said Israel is a stinking corpse that has no right to exist and should be wiped off the map.—————————————————————————————————————————————————————
JMJ:
“Kennedy and Reagan talked to our enemies. They succeeded with that strategy. They didn’t “appease” anyone, or give anyone anything without reciprocity, but they still did succeed. George W Bush has failed with everyone with whom he his administration has not spoken. Point proven.
Obama gets this. In fact, he brings it up ALL THE TIME, MAN. Where ya’ been???”
Both those scenarios already had policies in place. you’re the history buff, you should know this.
Obama said that Iran was not a threat yesterday. Now, he has changed his mind today to saying they are dangerous.
yea right Jersey. Why is that every talking point anywhere always comes to him not being good on national defense ?
I can give you at least 3 or 4 instances where he has displayed his arrogance and naivety on foriegn policy. And they are all quite popular and been all over the media as he blabbed his idiocy in front of millions. No one made it up.
Screw your history lesson.
How many Americans were killed in the cold war and how many have died as a result of Irans involvement in Iraq ?
Get that through your head and maybe you’ll get the point
“That lite would be a free and democratic …”
Guys, Eric included, when the #@!! are you going to get it through your neocon heads that “democracy,” as you understand it, is NOT your friend in the Middle East? Either you know that and yet ignore it, or you can’t even think with your own rhetoric! Either the people of the ME want peace and liberty or they don’t. It seems pretty clear to me what they want. What the #@!! do you guys think they want??? They don’t even know! What is this, the Las Vegas of the World? Gee, that’s a fun game. When are you going to get past this reality and create a new narrative? Why do conservatives cling to the same ol’ tired naratives even in the face of failure???
This is why I’m not a conservative anymore. This is why. Stupid, repetitive failure. It just gets annoying after a while. Why can’t we have the great statesmen of yesteryear? Oh yeah, we get caught up in their personal “issues” and peccadillos. What a bunch of stupid, stupid slobs we Americans have become.
JMJ
JMJ:
” What a bunch of stupid, stupid slobs we Americans have become.
You know what Jersey, I’m glad you said “we” in that statement. Because you sure qualify as one of slobs you speak of.
I just knooooow you aint talking about me ! Right ?
Iraq may not be the kind of democracy that we here in America are visioning but they are already well on their way there.
I have lists and list of all the accomplishments and freedoms Iraqis have obtained in the last 4 years.
They have tasted it, they know what is theirs, they are not complete idiots to the point that they cant taste a different flavor and determine if they like it or not.
The biggest mistake any man can ever make is to underestimate the people around him and judge them as quickly as you do everyone who does not see things your way.
What ever has been going on in the middle east for decades now has sure as hell has NOT BEEN OUR FRIEND !
GET IT ?
But no , you only have ideas and semi plausable critisizms after the fact.
Stupid repetative failure is exactly what the dems practiced for decades and it got 3 thousand of us killed in one day.
“Iraq may not be the kind of democracy that we here in America are visioning but they are already well on their way there.”
Really? Where exactly, or within a million miles, is “there”?
“Stupid repetative failure is exactly what the dems practiced for decades and it got 3 thousand of us killed in one day.”
No honest person can blame the Democrats for anything more than going along with the Republicans in recent years. So please don’t shovel that maneur my way.
JMJ
JMJ;
“Really? Where exactly, or within a million miles, is “there”?”
Oh dear, arent we the dramatic one today ?
Since you obviously have let anything and everything I’ve taught you go in one ear and out the other I’ll give you a little refresher course.
And mind you, this is only up until 2006, not counting the recent success of the surge.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
List of Iraq successes
BDE3TACP on AOL posted this:
“Since President Bush declared an end to major combat on May 1…
That by the way is the “Mission accomplished”.
Not the foolish moonbat liberal assertion that Bush was saying the war was over
… The first battalion of the new Iraqi Army has graduated and is on active duty.
… Over 60,000 Iraqis now provide security to their fellow citizens.
… Nearly all of Iraq’s 400 courts are functioning.
… The Iraqi judiciary is fully independent.
.. On Monday, October 6, power generation hit 4,518 megawatts, exceeding the prewar average.
… All 22 universities and 43 technical institutes and colleges are open, as are nearly all primary and secondary schools.
… By October 1, Coalition forces had rehab-ed over 1,500 schools – 500 more than scheduled.
… Teachers earn from 12 to 25 times their former salaries.
… All 240 hospitals and more than 1200 clinics are open.
… Doctor’s salaries are at least eight times what they were under Saddam.
… Pharmaceutical distribution has gone from essentially nothing to 700 tons in May to a current total of 12,000 tons.
… The Coalition has helped administer over 22 million vaccination doses to Iraq’s children.
… A Coalition program has cleared over 14,000 kilometers of Iraq’s 27,000 kilometers of weed-choked canals which now irrigate tens of thousands of farms. This project has created jobs for more than 100,000 Iraqi men and women.
… We have restored over three-quarters of prewar telephone services and over two-thirds of the potable water production.
… There are 4,900 full-service telephone connections. We expect 50,000 by year-end.
… The wheels of commerce are turning. From bicycles to satellite dishes to cars and trucks, businesses are coming to life in all major cities and towns.
… 95 percent of all prewar bank customers have service and first-time customers are opening accounts daily.
… Iraqi banks are making loans to finance businesses.
… The central bank is fully independent.
… Iraq has one of the world’s most growth-oriented investment and banking laws.
… Iraq has a single, unified currency for the first time in 15 years.
… Satellite TV dishes are legal.
… Foreign journalists aren’t on 10-day visas paying mandatory and extortionate fees to the Ministry of Information for minders and other government spies.
… There is no Ministry of Information.
… There are more than 170 newspapers.
… You can buy satellite dishes on what seems like every street corner.
… Foreign journalists (and everyone else) are free to come and go.
… A nation that had not one single element — legislative, judicial or executive — of a representative government now does.
… In Baghdad alone residents have selected 88 advisory councils. Baghdad’s first democratic transfer of power in 35 years happened when the city council elected its new chairman.
… Today in Iraq chambers of commerce, business, school and professional organizations are electing their leaders all over the country.
… 25 ministers, selected by the most representative governing body in Iraq’s history, run the day-to-day business of government.
… The Iraqi government regularly participates in international events. Since July the Iraqi government has been represented in over two dozen international meetings, including those of the UN General Assembly, the Arab League, the World Bank and IMF and, today, the Islamic Conference Summit. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs today announced that it is reopening over 30 Iraqi embassies around the world.
… Shiva religious festivals that were all but banned, aren’t anymore.
… For the first time in 35 years, in Karbala thousands of Shiites celebrate the pilgrimage of the 12th Imam.
… The Coalition has completed over 13,000 reconstruction projects, large and small, as part of a strategic plan for the reconstruction of Iraq.
… Uday and Queasy are dead – and no longer feeding innocent Iraqis to the zoo lions, raping the young daughters of local leaders to force cooperation, torturing Iraq’s soccer players for losing games, or murdering critics.
… Children aren’t imprisoned or murdered when their parents disagree with the government.
… Political opponents aren’t imprisoned, tortured, executed, maimed, or forced to watch their families die for disagreeing with Saddam.
… Millions of long-suffering Iraqis no longer live in perpetual terror.
… Saudis will hold municipal elections.
… Qatar is reforming education to give more choices to parents.
… Jordan is accelerating market economic reforms.
… The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded for the first time to an Iranian
— A Muslim woman who speaks out with courage for human rights, for democracy and for peace.
.. Saddam is gone.
… Iraq is free.
….Terrorists are being drawn to an arena in which our military can kill or capture them
Sovereignty is restored to Iraq”
JMJ:
“No honest person can blame the Democrats for anything more than going along with the Republicans in recent years. So please don’t shovel that maneur my way.”
I’m probably one of the most honest people you will ever meet.
You on the other hand seem to lack this quality seeing as how you choose to try and corner the events mentioned to “recently” when you know damn well I was talking about all the failed middle eastern policies of the Dems in the past administartions.
I said;
“Stupid repetative failure is exactly what the dems practiced for decades and it got 3 thousand of us killed in one day.”
As you can see I was not talking recently at all, I said “decades”!
Now, you are being incredibly disengenuous or being one of those stupid, stupid slobs you said we Americans have become.
Most of that is bull, Micky. You can’t put a simley face on that decaying corpse.
And it was Bush and the GOP that got 3000 Americans killed. Not the dems. Please don’t lie about that. It didn’t happen on their watch.
JMJ
It happened because of their neglegence during their watch.
It was concieved and planned on Clintons watch during his failed and neglegent attempts to kill Bin Laden and bomb training camps
We’ve had this debate and you could not prove that Bush was responsable for 911 in any way shape or form.
Can you prove most of that is bull ?
I will take the word of soldier with his boots on the ground any day over yours.
I like the way you refer to Iraq as a decaying corpse just as Amadingdong called Israel the same thing.
No lie at all.
Its fact that Clinton had multiple opportunity to take out Bin Laden in 8 years ! He had 8 freaking years and did nothing !
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/011919.php
“Clinton appeared to have been referring to a December 1999 Memorandum of Notification (MON) he signed that authorized the CIA to use lethal force to capture, not kill, bin Laden. But the inspector general’s report made it clear that the agency never viewed the order as a license to “kill” bin Laden—one reason it never mounted more effective operations against him. “The restrictions in the authorities given the CIA with respect to bin Laden, while arguably, although ambiguously, relaxed for a period of time in late 1998 and early 1999, limited the range of permissible operations,” the report stated. (Scheuer agreed with the inspector general’s findings on this issue, but said if anything the report was overly diplomatic. “There was never any ambiguity,” he said. “None of those authorities ever allowed us to kill anyone”
Bin Laden was implicated in the first World Trade Center bombing. That happened only a month after Clinton took office. Bin Laden contributed to the Somali incident that scarred the president’s first use of military force. Bin Ladens boys then kill more Americans in two more bombings, one in Saudi Arabia and at two U.S. embassies in East Africa, and then he nearly sink a Navy warship in the final months of Clinton’s term.
And Clinton did absolutly N O T H I N G !!
NOTHING!
So dont tell me I’m lying bro when the facts are the table showing a hell of a lot more neglegence on the part of your dear little bubba than any other President ever !
Back up yer sh** or consider all your points mute and useless.
Cuz like I’ve said a million times.
You can say anything you want , but unless you got something to back it up with, its all a big freaking joke.
Bull. George Bush was president for 8 months prior to 9/11. He did NOTHING in that time to make our country safer. Your president dropped the ball and 3,000 Americans died.
JMJ
But the fact remains that Bush has done more in the one month following 911 than Clinton did in 8 years.
Bush did not let the danger flourish. He had to deal with the lack of responsability and action on Clintons part.
Bush had a couple memos warning of an impending attack.
Clinton had at least 4 attacks, at least 4 clear and present dangers in his face, and did nothing.
Clinton totally screwed up in Africa, did practically nothimg on the Cole and absolutly nothing on the first trade tower bombing.
The first time they went after the towers on Bushs watch some serious ass kicking took place.
The first time they went after the towers on Clintons watch he did absolutly nothing , nadda zip zilch.
So you can get your rocks off all you want trying to blame this on Bush, it just makes you look like a hatefull little man who will not accepot the truth that is common knowledge.
And once again, I provide substantial verifiable sources to back up by claims.
And once again , all yer doin is yappin away expecting me to take your word for it.
If all we had to rely in debate on was peoples opinions there would be little point in even continuing.
We could just start out by looking at each other and asking:
“You got an opinion?”
And you would answer:
“Yea”
And then you would ask me;
“do you have an opnion?”
And the I would say:
Yea”
So O.K?
Where did that get us ?
No young man, you can sit around and fool yourself all day long if you want but I gave up all forms of masturbation a long time ago and decided to stop stroking my own ego and actually look for truth.
So unless you can actually make a case based on credible observations and documented credible events you are just jerking yourself off and all of us.
Al Queda had been planning 911 for at least 5 years previous to Bushs inaugeration.
That ball was in Clintons lap for those 5 years.
Clinton never even picked up the ball, never mind dropping it.
Historical fact Holmes.
while I don’t agree with the blame game going on here, it is quite obvious the Clinton Administration and the Bush Administration’s strategies confronting Al Queda and defending America were terribly different. The Clinton people saw it as something akin to law enforcement and the Bush folks recognized it as a War.
We haven’t been succesfully attacked on our home soil since 9/11.