Rudy Giuliani Returns

It may turn out to be a blip, but it could also be a political neutron bomb.

Rudy Giuliani has returned.

I honestly never saw this coming.

After his 2008 presidential campaign flamed out, I was convinced he would sit out 2012. He would have easily won the governorship of New York in 2010, and his reelection in 2014 would have positioned him for 2016. He would have been 68, still young enough to run.

Yet there he was in 2011 on Sean Hannity’s program saying he is seriously considering running again in 2012. By March he will decide to seriously consider running, which is how it is done nowadays.

I have said many times that Republicans always nominate the guy next in line. We are a hierarchy, and the next successor is Mitt Romney since he came in second in 2008. He is tall, has good hair, and is inoffensive.

While I had not even begun to think about 2012, I was privately hoping that Haley Barbour would run and choose Linda Lingle as his Vice President. Some feel Haley is “too Southern,” but he is the best money raiser in the entire party.

Yet everything is on hold for me until Rudy Giuliani makes his decision.

Many people criticized Giuliani for his admittedly lousy campaign in 2008. Yet there was something else in play that will not hurt him in 2012.

Giuliani is a bare knuckle brawler. He loves a good political fight. He relishes taking on people.

In 2008 he was itching for a fight with Romney. He was salivating at the thought of taking down Romney. He could have and probably would have.

Then he would have been ready for Hillary Clinton.

Yet nothing was conventional about 2008, and one person came along that upset Rudy’s plans, the one man Rudy would not go after.

Rudy Giuliani would not criticize John McCain.

They are personal friends.

When Rudy was riding high and McCain was down and almost out, Rudy even said that if he were not running, he would vote for McCain. They both shared contempt for Romney, and the plan for Rudy was for him to hang out in Florida, have Romney knock out McCain, and then he would go after Romney.

Yet when McCain shocked everyone by again winning in New Hampshire, he rose and Rudy fell. Rudy still would not go after him.

So one could say that in a business of dishonor and betrayal, Giuliani put honor and loyalty above winning. Even as McCain rose, he did it without attacking Giuliani either.

I still maintain that John McCain was the only person who could have stopped Rudy Giuliani.

McCain will not be running in 2012. As of now there is no bright new name on the scene. The Republican Party does not do that. We follow the hierarchy. The same people from 2008 will be back, which means Romney, Huckabee, and Palin. Gingrich may also run. Tim Pawlenty is a nice guy but not part of hierarchy. He needs to run, lose, perhaps get chosen for Vice President, and then try again for President in 2016 or 2020.

In the same way there is not enough energy in the center-right for McCain and Giuliani, there is not enough energy for a staunch social conservative to run.

That means if Palin runs, Huckabee and long shot Rick Santorum are finished.

Romney is automatically in the game because he is the de facto next in line, and he has tons of money.

The vacuum is still there for a center-right candidate, and nobody has stepped up to fill it.

Palin and Gingrich fire up the base, but they also fire up the other side. Giuliani can appeal to moderates.

Some speculated that Giuliani never wanted the job. I disagree. That would be Fred Thompson. Giuliani did not want to take on McCain.

Giuliani also has one major advantage over the other candidates.

For those not paying attention, Barack Obama is partially black. In 2008 McCain and the others were unprepared to deal with the notion of running against a black man. They were scared of being called racists, and rightfully so.

Giuliani is the only one with the playbook on how to defeat somebody who happens to be black. Giuliani defeated David Dinkins to become Mayor of New York City. The issue was not race. It was leadership. Giuliani will paint Obama like Dinkins, a good and decent man not tough enough to get the job done.

He was not intimidated dealing with the issue in New York. The others are still scared of the issue.

Rudy is itching for a direct confrontation with Romney again. Taking on Palin would be much tougher, because she has such a fiercely loyal fan base. Yet there is enough anti-Palin sentiment to make Rudy able to beat her without taking her on in a destructive way. Romney does not have that loyalty. As for Huckabee, he is not a threat to Giuliani. Gingrich may run, although too many are praying he doesn’t because of his many detractors.

All I ask of Rudy is that if he runs, that he bring his brass knuckles this time. As much as I love Barbour, I love Rudy more.

I have zero interest in covering 2012 at this time. I want to enjoy a quiet 2011.

Yet the game has now changed. Nobody gets my support until he decides.

Mayor Giuliani, either go all in or all out. There is no inbetween.

Let us know your plans. I look forward to your decision.


One Response to “Rudy Giuliani Returns”

  1. Giuliani is an interesting character. He could, if the stars aligned correctly, so to speak, win the presidency. That’s a big “could,” though.

    First obstacle: Rudy moved significantly to the Right in the last decade, for a variety of reasons. But many centrists and conservatives are highly suspicious of the sincerity of his conservatism – let alone the veracity of his stated beliefs at all. We who remember him well, know that we were quite disillusioned with him later in his life.

    Second obstacle: Most mainstream Republicans would tell you that Giuliani understandably moved to the Right in reaction to 9/11. But 9/11 doesn’t hold the same sway it did in the last decade, as evidenced, for example, by movements to demilitarize now eminating even from the Right. Giuliani’s “9/11” shtick is a yawn for many, and aggravating to many as well.

    Third obstacle: The Republican party is now so entrenched in the South and Inner-West, that an Italian, Catholic, Mayor of New York City is not a very likely GOP nominee. Mitt Romney, for example, would have been a shoe-in 20 years ago. Now, the GOP has become too homogenous for a Mitt – and probably for a Rudy.

    If he did get the nomination, he could win. That “if” is much bigger than the “could.”


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