Election 2012 is over a year away, but it seems like it will take forever to get the children out of the room so the adults can have a conversation.
In 2008 there were four serious GOP candidates in Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney. The three serious Democrats were Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards.
Yet the adults could not have conversations while the field was bogged down with everybody from Tom Tancredo to Mike Gravel. Mike Huckabee won Iowa, which further delayed the process for the GOP.
The Republicans will eventually have serious discussions, but the first GOP debate in South Carolina was nonsense.
Before getting to the candidates, can Republicans stop swooning over the non-candidates? They all said they could have won. If that was true, they would have run. Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and Mitch Daniels all had die hard support that could have evaporated once the bloom was off the rose. Haley Barbour most likely got crowded out by Newt Gingrich. Mentioning the non-contenders even once more in the context of the 2012 election is not necessary. They are all very good at what they do, and did not advance further even to the first caucus and primary states.
As for the Democrats, Mr. Obama will not have a primary challenge from anybody sane. Russ Feingold and Dennis Kucinich even understood that it is not worth being called a racist. Hillary gets it.
Back to the GOP. Anybody that the GOP is currently swooning over must stay out of the race. Colonel Allen West, Senator Marco Rubio, Congressman Paul Ryan, and Governor Chris Christie must not run. They should refuse the vice presidential slot as well. They are all fabulous. They are all off to excellent starts. They will all be savaged as career ambitionists if they abandon their responsibilities just to climb the ladder. They have all said they are not running, and they must keep their word. Otherwise, they will lose their authenticity. Give them four or eight years, and they can, will, and should deserve the acclaim if their deeds match their current strong words.
With that, let’s separate the candidates from reality to fantasy.
The top GOP tier is based on having a base of support. It is not based on any general election predictions. This is about the primaries.
Mitt Romney is the favorite and next in line. The GOP is a hierarchy, so any other nominee would be a stunner.
Tim Pawlenty is the safe choice everybody can live with if Romney stumbles.
Sarah Palin is the rock star, although she may not get in.
Newt Gingrich is the policy heavyweight.
Michele Bachmann is the Tea Party darling.
There is no foreign policy candidate in the race right now. If John Bolton runs, he occupies that role. If Rudy Giuliani (who I endorsed in 2008 and would again) runs, he gets that slot. There is not enough room for both of them. If Giuliani gets in, Pawlenty slips to second tier. Pawlenty is the compromise candidate, but too many big names would keep him from getting the second look. Also, if Palin gets in, Bachmann drops to second tier.
The second tier consists of Senator Rick Santorum, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, and businessman Herman Cain. What keeps them from slipping lower is different for each one. Mr. Santorum will run as the socially conservative candidate. Mr. Cain would be lower but he will have plenty of money, keeping him in the game. Mr Huntsman will have one billion dollars at his disposal. Mr. Santorum may be crowded out because most of the candidates are socially conservatives, even if they downplay this. Mr. Huntsman and Mr. Cain do not provide much difference from Mr. Romney in terms of rationale. Mr. Cain is black, but the GOP does not reward people based on identity politics like the Democrats do.
The third tier is Ron Paul. What keeps him from the second tier is that too many will not consider him under any circumstances. His support has a ceiling. His supporters are rabid, but rabid support from screaming teenagers did not elect Howard Dean either. Dr. Paul is trying to remake the entire Republican Party in his image. The GOP is evolutionary, not revolutionary. Dr. Paul would be better off running as an independent because his supporters are not Republicans. While the Paulbots want to remake the entire party, they fail to grasp that the party does not want this. What keeps Dr. Paul from the fourth tier is that people have heard of him.
The fourth tier is where lunacy exists. Why are these people running? Nobody knows. They poll lower than Ron Paul, which should be an immediate signal to get out of the race. They will stay in out of narcissism. For people with no chance of winning and nothing to lose, running for President can be fun. So after a brief mention of the fourth tier, they will not be mentioned by me again. They should be banned from the debates to avoid turning those serious events into a circus.
The fourth tier is former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. He is running on a platform of being pro-marijuana. The slackers and stoners can go back to the Democratic Party where they belong. Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer has some recognition in his home state. Fred Karger is a gay, Jewish Republican running on a gay marriage platform.
Every minute that the also-rans suck up debate oxygen is a minute we cannot listen to a serious debate between the top tier candidates.
Some will complain that if the lower tiers got more media attention they would be more viable. It does not work that way. Become viable first. Then get attention. Otherwise, everybody could run for President. We would have 300 million candidates and no voters.
At some point things have to get serious. So let’s get the 2012 irrelevancies over with by the time the Summer silly season ends. After Labor Day, the adults only need apply.
eric