THE TYGRRRR EXPRESS

NFL 2023 Black Monday Coach Firings Predictions

Happy New Year. You’re history. Happy Hanukkah. Clean out your desk. Merry Christmas. You’re fired. The NFL coaching carousel is about to spin like a dreidel. The NFL is a cold place in losing environments. The annual ritual of firing coaches on Black Monday is a long-established NFL tradition. As retired coach Jerry Glanville used to say, the NFL stands for “Not For Long.”

Thankfully, Black Monday now comes past the holiday season, allowing coaches to enjoy time with their families. The pink-slips come afterward.

This season’s NFL 2023 Black Monday Coach Firing Carousel

The 2023 regular season coaching carousel saw three coaches fired during the season. The Carolina Panthers fired Frank Reich midway through his first season with the team 1-10. Chris Tabor is the interim coach. The Los Angeles Chargers fired Brandon Staley after less than three years. He was dismissed with the team 5-10. Giff Smith is the interim coach. The Chargers also fired General Manager Tom Telesco. The Raiders fired Coach Josh McDaniels and General Manager Dave Ziegler at the midpoint of their second season with the team 3-5. Antonio Pierce is the interim coach. 

More changes will come Black Monday. 

A time to fire: Rules of the Black Monday coach firing ritual

Owners can fire any employee they want whenever they want, but that does not mean they should. There are certain unwritten rules that owners should consider before firing (or not) NFL coaches on Black Monday.

• Never fire a coach after a winning season. No matter how badly the team underachieves, some teams would kill to go 9-8.
• Do not fire a coach unless it is absolutely definite that a better replacement option exists.
• Do not fire a coach after one season unless there is zero hope for improvement. Bill Parcells won only three games in his first season as an NFL head coach. Jimmy Johnson won one game. Tom Landry won zero games and tied one.
• Do not fire a coach after two losing seasons if they had four or five winning seasons prior. Allow two or even three bad seasons if the coach has the ability to turn things around.
• If a coach has won a Super Bowl for you, leave him alone for a few years.
• If he has won two Super Bowls for you in non-consecutive years, give him a lifetime contract.
• Lastly, if it is a close call, give the coach one more year.

With that, here are the NFL 2023 Black Monday Coach Firing predictions.

Black Monday firings that are necessary:

Los Angeles Chargers: 

What should happen:

Giff Smith is just a placeholder. The Chargers have a stud quarterback in Justin Herbert. Ownership is notoriously cheap, but the team needs a quarterback whisperer who will unleash Herbert and build around him. 

What will happen:

Smith is gone through no fault of his own. 

Carolina Panthers: 

What should happen: Chris Tabor is also just a placeholder. The Panthers need to develop rookie quarterback Bryce Young. This team also needs a quarterback whisperer, but they have an often side guru already in the building who too many teams need to stop overlooking. Jim Caldwell deserves the job.

What will happen: Tabor is gone, also through no fault of his own. The question is if owner David Tepper will be bright enough to hire Caldwell. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

What should happen:

Todd Bowles is a very good defensive coordinator. He is not a good head coach. He had a losing record in four years with the Jets. He took a playoff team under Bruce Arians and saw the offense regress badly even with Tom Brady. It took a couple of Brady miracles to will this team to an 8-9 record, the worst in Brady’s 23 seasons. Brady remarkably had not regressed. The problem is Bowles does not know offense. Now in 2023, he has an 8-8 team that could again win the horrendous NFC South. Also, firing him would be a powder keg given the NFL’s struggle to hire minority coaches. If Bowles makes the playoffs, he is safe. If he loses to 2-14 Carolina and missed the playoffs, his seat should be white hot. Bowles is an admirable man. He has refused to make his race an issue. The problem is that he was selected for the job by Arians because of his race. Arians was determined to hire a minority head coach. The goal is admirable but Bowles is not the best minority candidate. 

What will happen:

Bowles stays if the Buccaneers should eke into the playoffs. This will earn Bowles one more year. He may be gone next year unless he can finally make a deep playoff run with a talented roster. If the Buccaneers miss the playoffs, Bowles should and could be gone. 

New Orleans Saints:

What should happen:

Dennis Allen is a terrific defensive coordinator who is not a head coach. He had a terrible record coaching the Raiders, although to be fair that roster was being deconstructed and reconstructed. Yet Jack Del Rio came in the next year and turned things around. Allen brought in Derek Carr and was supposed to win the NFC South easily. Instead the Saints are on the brink of playoff elimination at 8-8. If the Saints make the playoffs, that could save Allen. Right now they are on the outside looking in.

What will happen:

Allen was given a reprieve last year due to plenty of injuries. This year Allen is out of excuses. He is good guy and a great defensive coordinator. He is not a head coach. There are too many attractive options available for the Saints to settle. Allen is fired, but should be given the option to stay on as defensive coordinator. 

Deserve to stay but will be fired: 

New England Patriots: Bill Belichick

After 24 years and 6 Super Bowls, The Evil Hoodie might be fired by Robert Kraft. Yes, the Patriots are bad, but the idea that the Patriots dynasty was all Tom Brady is contradicted by important evidence. Belichick won two Super Bowls as the defensive coordinator of the Giants before Brady ever stepped on an NFL field. Belichick devised the defensive game plan for two of the greatest upsets in Super bowl history, the 1990 Giants defeating the Bills and the 2001 Patriots defeating the Rams were because his defenses stopped previously unstoppable offenses. In the 2008 season when Brady was out injured, Belichick took a team led by Matt Cassel to an 11-5 record. This Patriots team has a good defense and terrible quarterback play. Maybe Belichick should bring back Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator. Belichick deserves a lifetime contract and the right to retire on his own terms. If Belichick really wants to torture Kraft, he could take a year off and then finally become the coach of the Jets. That would turn the NFL on its head and make the Bill Parcells feud with Kraft seem like child’s play. Kraft may have had enough of Belichick’s ego, but Belichick deserves the chance to try and turn things around. Kraft will likely try to create as amicable a parting as possible, a move he will regret. Belichick is going. It will be a mistake. 

Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera

This should not be a close call at all. Rivera is a very good coach and a fine leader of men. He is well respected in the community. He represents everything that is right about football. He even led the team last year while battling cancer. He does have to figure out the quarterback situation. Owner Dan Snyder finally sold the team, and a new owner might want a new coach. Rivera is the only thing respectable about management in DC. If he gets thrown under the bus, he will have other teams immediately trying to snap him up. He deserves on more year but will not get it.  

Deserve to be fired but will stay:

Chicago Bears: Matt Eberflus

A few weeks ago Eburflus was uber-flustered and a dead coach walking. After starting 0-4 and 3-8, the Bears have gone 4-1 down the stretch to get to a respectable 7-9. During that span the Bears beat a very good Detroit team and whipped Atlanta by 20 points. If the Bears go into Green Bay and knock the Packers out of the playoffs, Eberlfus is safe. If they lose without getting blown out, he may still get one more year. The Bears have the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. No evidence exists that Eberflus can coach, but the strong finish should give him breathing room until next year. 

Deserve to stay and will stay:

Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce:

What should happen:

Josh McDaniels was an unmitigated disaster. Antonio Pierce has changed the culture of the Raiders. The defense was a mess. Now with Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator, th defense is vastly improved. The secondary is even improved. McDaniels refused to run the ball in obvious running situations, such as in the fourth quarter with a lead. He preferred finesse to smash mouth and failed. Pierce pounds the rock. The Raiders scored a franchise record 63 points in one game. They lost a heart-breaker 3-0 but went into Kansas City and belted them 20-14. Pierce absolutely deserves to have the interim tag removed and become the permanent head coach. 

What will happen:

Mark Davis has to know that the players and the fans love Pierce. He has to know that getting rid of Rich Bisaccia was a mistake. If Jim Harbaugh or Jon Gruden are available, Davis has to grab them. Yet barring those extreme situations, Pierce will rightly be given the full chance Bisaccia never got. Pierce stays.

Tennessee Titans: Mike Vrabel: 

What should happen: Despite consecutive losing seasons, Vrabel should not be in any serious danger. The Titans have been devastated by injuries the last couple of years. Two years ago they were the top seed in the AFC. Last year they started 7-3 before the roof caved in. As tough as this year was, he should be given the chance to turn things around. 

What will happen: Vrabel may be eyeing the New England job if it becomes available. Barring a surprising turn of events, Vrabel is going to stay. He is in a small market with a patient ownership group that allowed Jeff Fisher to stay for 16 years. 

Green Bay Packers: Matt LaFleur

What should happen: As of now LaFleur seems safe as can be, but for the second year in a row the Packers have a do-or-die game at home. Last year in shocking fashion they were knocked out of the playoff race. For the second straight year they face a supposedly inferior team. If LaFleur misses the playoffs again under the same circumstances, he may face some chatter about next year. As long as Jordan Love continues to develop, LaFleur is safe. 

What will happen: Jordan Love has not been spectacular, but he has been good enough. The Packers tend to be a patient organization. As long as Love does not regress, LaFleur is safe. 

New York Jets: Robert Saleh: 

What should happen: Can someone get this man a quarterback? He has a great defense and a horrendous quarterback. Aaron Rodgers lasted four snaps. Not four games…four snaps. Saleh deserves to be given the chance to see what he can do with a healthy Rodgers. 

What will happen: This one is anti-climactic because owner Woody Johnson has already told Saleh that he is coming back next year. Yet if the team does not make the playoffs with a healthy Rodgers under center, then Saleh deserves to be put int he category of great defensive coordinators not able to succeed at the head coaching level. Next year is Saleh’s last chance. 

Lifetime contract to silence the critics:

Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Tomlin

Tomlin is not on any list of coaches being fired. However, in the past, he has been. That speculation needs to end permanently. In 17 years, Tomlin never had a losing season. Yet with Ben Roethlisberger retired and Kenny Pickett a rookie, the 2022 Steelers started 2-6 and 3-7. Again, Tomlin turned them around. He wins with hard-nosed running and defense. The Rooney family should let him stay as long as he wants. At this point, they probably will. They are smart, patient owners, and their loyalty has been rewarded. Tomlin is as good as they get on and off the field. He is another guy who represents the best of football. 

New England Patriots: Bill Belichick

For all the reasons listed above, firing Belichick would be one of the truly idiotic moves in all of sports. 

Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll

The oldest coach in the NFL runs around like he is the youngest. He is a positive upbeat cheerleader and the players respond well. He gets more out of less, as his revitalizing Geno Smith has proven. His 8-8 Seahawks may or may not make the playoffs this year, but Carroll has a great working relationship with General Manager John Schneider. He wants to stay and should be allowed to leave on his terms when he is ready to retire.

eric

NFL 2023-2024 NFC Playoff Permutations and Combinations

LOS ANGELES, January 4, 2023 — The first 17 weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season are in the history books. Week 18 is here. 

This week football jargon not used for 51 weeks is said over and over. We learn who controls their own destiny and who needs help making the playoffs. Some years it seems almost everybody has a shot at the playoffs. This year the AFC playoff picture has several possibilities. Only one playoff spot remains for three teams. Everything else is a fight for seeding among teams that have already clinched playoff berths.

This brings my assessment of the 2023-2024 NFC playoff permutations and combinations.

Only the top seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs gets the first-round bye.

The AFC Playoff picture is far more straightforward. 

All eight NFC Week 18 games have playoff implications. Only two of the four NFC Divisions have been clinched.

Now for the NFC Playoff picture. 

1.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4): The 49ers have clinched the NFC West. They also locked up the top seed in the NFC, home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and a first round bye. 

2.) Dallas Cowboys (11-5): The Cowboys are tied atop the NFC East and they hold the tie-breaker. They are currently the two seed. If they win next week or Philadelphia loses, the Cowboys clinch the NFC East and remain the two seed. They would host a Wildcard game. If the Cowboys lose and Philadelphia wins, the Cowboys move all the way down to the  five seed Wildcard. The Cowboys would play a road Wildcard playoff game. 

3.) Detroit Lions (11-5): The Lions have clinched the NFC North. Right now they are the three seed. They can finish no lower than the three seed. If they win next against Minnesota and Dallas and Philadelphia both lose, the Lions can move up to the two seed but no higher. The Lions will be hosting a game on Wildcard Weekend. 

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8): The Buccaneers are tied atop the NFC South and they hold the tie-breaker, but they have not have clinched anything. They control their own destiny. Their situation is do-or-die. If the Buccaneers win their Week 18 finale at Carolina, the Buccaneers win the NFC South and are locked into the four seed. They would host a Wildcard playoff game. If the Buccaneers lose, they are out. 

5.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5): The Eagles are tied atop the NFC East but they do not hold the tie-breaker. They are currently the five seed Wildcard. If they lose next week or Dallas wins, the Eagles remain the five seed. They would play a road Wildcard game. If the Eagles win and Dallas loses, the Eagles clinch the NFC East. The Eagles move all the way up to the two seed. The Eagles would host a Wildcard Weekend playoff game. 

6.) Los Angeles Rams (9-7): The Rams have clinched a Wildcard and cannot finish higher than the six seed. If they lose and Green Bay wins, the Rams fall to the seven seed. They might rest their starters in the regular season finale.  

7:) Green Bay Packers (8-8): The Packers are currently the seven seed. They have not clinched anything. They can only make the playoffs as a Wildcard. Yet they control their own destiny. If they win next week, they clinch the seven seed. If the Packers win and the Rams lose, the Packers move up to the six seed. They can be no higher. Any Wildcard game they play would be on the road. If the Packers lose, they are out.

On the outside looking in:

8:) Seattle Seahawks (8-8): The Seahawks are on the outside looking in. They can only make the playoffs as a Wildcard. Their only hope is to win next week and have Green Bay lose. If that happens, the Seahawks clinch the seven seed. They can be no higher. Any Wildcard game they play would be on the road. If they lose or the Packers win, the Seahawks are out.

9.) New Orleans Saints (8-8): The Saints are on the outside looking in. They are tied for the NFC South lead but do not hold the tie-breaker. If the Saints win their finale against Atlanta and Tampa Bay loses, The Saints would win the NFC West outright. They would be the four seed and host a Wildcard playoff game. If the Saints win but Tampa also wins, the Saints would lose the division tie-breaker but could still make the playoffs if Seattle and Green Bay both lose. In that situation the saints would be the seven seed Wildcard with all their playoff games on the road. If the Saints win, Tampa wins, and either Green Bay or Seattle win, the Saints are out. If the Saints lose, they are out. 

10.)  Atlanta Falcons (7-9): The Falcons are on the outside looking in. They only have one path to the playoffs. If they win their finale against New Orleans and Tampa loses, all three teams would be 8-9. The Falcons would win the tie-breaker and win the NFC South. They would be the four seed and host a Wildcard playoff game. The Falcons cannot make the playoffs as a Wildcard. If the Falcons lose, they are out. 

11.) Minnesota Vikings (7-9): The Vikings are on the outside looking in. They have the longest odds. If they win and Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle all lose, the Vikings get the seven seed and a road Wildcard game. Otherwise, the Vikings are out.

Here are all eight NFC games with playoff implications:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Carolina Panthers (2-14)

Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at Washington Commanders (4-12)

Seattle Seahawks (8-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-12) 

Los Angeles Rams (9-7) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4) 

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at New York Giants (5-11) 

Minnesota Vikings (7-9) at Detroit Lions (11-5) 

Atlanta Falcons (7-9) at New Orleans Saints (8-8)

Chicago Bears (7-9) at Green Bay Packers (8-8)

Predictions:

1.) 49ers 12-5 (The 49ers may rest their starters)

2.) Cowboys 12-5

3.) Lions 12-5

4.) Buccaneers 9-8 

5.) Eagles 11-6

6.) Rams 10-7 (assuming the 49ers rest their starters) 

7.) Packers 9-8 

Out: Saints 9-8, Seahawks 8-9, Falcons 7-10

Wildcard Round: 

7.) Packers at 2.) Cowboys

6.) Rams at 3.) Lions

5.) Eagles at 4.) Buccaneers

Divisional Round:

4.) Buccaneers at 1.) 49ers

3.) Lions at 2.) Cowboys

NFC Title Game: 2.) Cowboys at 1.) 49ers

The 49ers have the most complete team in the NFC because of their nasty defense. The Cowboys have an explosive offense but at San Francisco, the 49ers defense will be the difference. They blasted the Cowboys once and will again.

Because of that defense the 49ers will host the George Halas NFC Championship Trophy and reach the Super Bowl. Bringing home the Vince Lombardi Trophy will be very tough. The Baltimore Ravens beat them easily. A rematch would be tougher, but Baltimore would be favored to win it all. 

eric

NFL 2023-2024 AFC Playoff Permutations and Combinations

LOS ANGELES, January 2, 2024 — The first 17 weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season are in the history books. Week 18 is here. 

This week football jargon not used for 51 weeks is said over and over. We learn who controls their own destiny and who needs help making the playoffs. Some years it seems almost everybody has a shot at the playoffs. This year the AFC playoff picture has plenty of possibilities. 

That’s our assessment of the 2023-2024 AFC playoff permutations and combinations.

Only the top seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs gets the first-round bye.

The NFC playoff picture has several possibilities. The AFC Playoff picture thankfully is not the total mess it was last year due to reasons far bigger than football. Buffalo Bills defender Damar Hamlin had a heart attack one year ago today when the Bills played the Cincinnati Bengals. He was in a hospital fighting for his life. We all prayed for Mr. Hamlin to get better. quickly. Thankfully, he did. His first written question to doctors was “Did we win the game?” Unaware the game was canceled, the doctor smartly and beautifully replied, “You won the game of life.”vMr. Hamlin had a GoFundMe page set up to raise funds to buy toys for underprivileged children. His goal was to raise $2,500. In the 3 days after his life-threatening injury, over $7 million was raised. 

https://www.gofundme.com/f/mxksc-the-chasing-ms-foundation-community-toy-drive

This staggering show of love was also in addition to a very classy display by the home fans in Cincinnati. Bengals fans joined with Bills fans outside the hospital to pray for him.

While nothing is more important than life and death, this is a column about football. While Mr. Hamlin miraculously made it back to the football field this season, he has played very little football. So this year let us be thankful that the playoffs are normal, and only about football. With all respect to Mr. Hamlin, this is a football column. The rest of this column will be devoted to the football games themselves. 

Only four of the eight AFC Week 18 games have playoff implications. Only two of the four AFC Divisions have been clinched.

Now for the AFC Playoff picture.  

1.) Baltimore Ravens (13-3): The Ravens have clinched the AFC North. They have also locked up the top seed with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the first round bye.

2.) Miami Dolphins: 11-5): The Dolphins lead the AFC East by one game but have not clinched their division. They have clinched a playoff spot. The Dolphins have a Week 18 division showdown with Buffalo. If the Dolphins win, they clinch the AFC East and are the two seed hosting a Wildcard game. If they lose, they fall to the six seed and would be on road during Wildcard weekend.  

3.) Kansas City Chiefs (10-6): The Chiefs clinched the AFC West for the eighth straight season and are locked into the three seed. They will host a Wildcard playoff game. 

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7): The Jaguars are in a three way tie atop the AFC South but have not clinched anything. They control their own destiny. If they beat Tennessee in the regular season finale, they win their division. They would be the four seed and host a Wildcard Weekend playoff game. If they lose to Tennessee, they lose the division. With a loss they could still make the playoffs as the seven seed Wildcard but would some help. Denver and Pittsburgh would both have to lose. If the Jaguars lose and either one of those two teams wins, the Jaguars are out.

5.) Cleveland Browns (11-5): The Browns are locked into the five seed Wildcard and will play a road playoff game on Wildcard weekend.  

6.) Buffalo Bills (10-6): The Bills are one game back in the AFC East. They have officially clinched nothing, but they are “all but in.” Right now they are the six seed and would play a road game on Wildcard weekend. They have a Week 18 AFC East showdown at Miami. If the Bills win, they are AFC East Champions and vault up to the two seed. They would host a game on Wildcard weekend. If they lose, they would fall from the six seed to the seven seed. The only way they would miss the playoffs is if they lose, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville both win, and Houston and Indianapolis play to a tie. Barring that incredibly unlikely last scenario, the Bills are in. 

7.) Indianapolis Colts (9-7): The Colts have not clinched anything but they control their own destiny. They have a do-or-die Week 18 showdown against Houston. If the Colts win, they clinch the seven seed Wildcard and play a road playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If they win and Jacksonville loses, the Colts win the AFC South and move up to the four seed. They would host a game on Wildcard weekend. If the Colts lose, they are out.

Outside looking in: 

8.) Houston Texans (9-7): The Texans have not clinched anything but they control their own destiny. IThey have a do-or-die week 18 showdown against Indianapolis. If the Texans win, they clinch the seven seed Wildcard and play a road playoff game on Wildcard Weekend. If they win and Jacksonville loses, the Texans win the AFC South and move up to the four seed. They would host a game on Wildcard weekend. If the Texans lose, they are out.

9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7): The Steelers have the longest shot. They can make the playoffs as the seven seed Wildcard if they win their regular season finale and either Buffalo or Jacksonville loses. If the Steelers win but Buffalo and Jacksonville both win, the Steelers would need the Houston-Indianapolis game to end in a tie. If Buffalo and Jacksonville both win and the Houston-Indianapolis game is not a tie, the Steelers are out. If the Steelers lose, they are out.

Here are the AFC games with playoff implications:

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-3)

Houston Texans (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-7) 

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) at Tennessee Titans (5-11)

Buffalo Bills (9-7) at Miami Dolphins (10-6)

Predictions:

1.) Ravens 13-4

2.) Dolphins 12-5

3.) Chiefs 11-6

4.) Jaguars 10-7

5.) Browns 11-6

6.) Bills 10-7

7.) Colts 10-7

Out — Pittsburgh 9-8, Houston 9-8

Wildcard Round:

7.) Colts at 2.) Dolphins

6.) Bills at 3.) Chiefs

5.) Browns at 4.) Jaguars

Divisional Round:

6.) Bills at 1.) Ravens

5.) Browns at 2.) Dolphins 

AFC Title Game: 2.) Dolphins vs 1.) Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens are a wrecking machine. They will hold the Lamar Hunt Trophy as the AFC Champion. Then they will hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy as Super Bowl LVIII Champions.